Earnings · resolved market
Will US Bancorp (USB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869b0832cdad10bc72b315f53343d0336ebea3298d20b1f2411ec2780f1f1dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0534backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 511.41$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 80c | 458.39$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 17c | 438.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 15c | 361.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 352.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 14c | 302.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 17c | 174.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 12c | 160.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked No | 47c | 158.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 26c | 135.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 18c | 111.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…0c73backed No | 18c | 104.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…c838backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed No | 17c | 97.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 16c | 79.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…f8d4backed No | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 36c | 55.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 52c | 35.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…e91ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 66c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5104backed Yes | 76c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.