TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb13b…0e2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+98%+$17.52
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.67
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.03
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.54
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$29.99
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+316.7%+$60
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+60.5%+$14.43
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+42.5%+$22.88
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20.36
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$21.32
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$55.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.48
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.91
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+39.8%+$10.59
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+184.8%+$26.22
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 1.5m and 2m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.12
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$52.75
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+250.9%+$28.6
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.06
Will Hamnet win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+208.7%+$172.4
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+37%+$5.4
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+117.4%+$12.42
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$17.1
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+138.9%+$36.65
Will "One Battle After Another" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.18
All 14 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir reach $204 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$13.12
Will Microsoft reach $525 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.25
Will Google dip to $240 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.75
Will Apple reach $280 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Will Meta reach $680 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10.23
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5.13
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+56.2%+$43.15
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$29.2
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.17
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+166.5%+$20.45
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+70.5%+$10.02
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.57
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+132.3%+$22.25
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+88.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+98.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
alon called coin FDV above $1M one day after the call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+53.3%+$17.39
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+63.9%+$24.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+100%+$12.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$43.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.