Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3034ce842b51d1f24d6d95bbf695d6cf855b19f8602ff2f55a62864a72d587c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,062$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,908$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 1c | 2,701$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,028$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.78 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 58c | 1,372$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 55c | 1,100$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.67 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,076$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…3907backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…52cdbacked No | 44c | 1,016$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 45c | 1,007$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.43 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe125…f1acbacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 997.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed Yes | 23c | 997.43$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 918.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 27c | 913.58$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.59 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 28c | 870.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.87 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 782.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…7414backed Yes | 25c | 760.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c4…9ce6backed No | 61c | 710.36$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…1ad1backed Yes | 71c | 709.96$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 693.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 33c | 661.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 643.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.48 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed No | 55c | 548.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 19c | 514$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 487.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 50c | 477.15$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 17c | 436.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 24c | 434.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…b0bdbacked No | 51c | 432.19$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 30c | 429.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked No | 38c | 423$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.55 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…9630backed Yes | 55c | 418.73$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 417.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 383.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…5e91backed No | 40c | 381.09$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed No | 42c | 376.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 5c | 367.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…14fbbacked No | 49c | 344.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 39c | 343.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed No | 44c | 338$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…3d39backed Yes | 4c | 305.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…ec95backed Yes | 5c | 303.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 30c | 293.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked No | 60c | 290.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked Yes | 42c | 284.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 65c | 283.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed No | 75c | 265.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 46c | 265.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked No | 40c | 248.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 47c | 248.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…2090backed Yes | 61c | 246.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…39babacked Yes | 50c | 231.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…6d7bbacked No | 43c | 228.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…8280backed Yes | 68c | 217.15$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 66cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…a1a1backed No | 49c | 204.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…d17dbacked No | 49c | 204.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 33c | 203.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…5168backed No | 47c | 193.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 79c | 190.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 53c | 189.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 14c | 174.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 14c | 173.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…937bbacked Yes | 59c | 169.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 60c | 166.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…70c2backed Yes | 41c | 166.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 50c | 160$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…d068backed No | 39c | 153.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 141.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b7…6b85backed No | 48c | 141.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…cf0abacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 131.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…0466backed Yes | 20c | 130.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 127.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 49c | 127.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 26c | 115.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 69c | 112$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…33e6backed No | 47c | 106.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…1fa0backed Yes | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…0c8ebacked Yes | 40c | 101.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…b2acbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…a2ccbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.