Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a1edf139252e0bd94c4d9a3fa3e7593a3c0abb80933c776ef5863fdc5ea207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 34c | 1,377$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 1,043$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.81 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed No | 34c | 887$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 34c | 882$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…7130backed Yes | 66c | 852$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 66c | 778$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 34c | 773$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 66c | 759$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 67c | 752$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 66c | 743$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 735.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 34c | 698$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 66c | 698$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 34c | 688$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 33c | 670$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 66c | 661$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 66c | 652$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 66c | 625$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 66c | 620$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 71c | 603.84$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 66c | 582$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 34c | 582$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 34c | 550$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 66c | 530$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 67c | 523$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 34c | 521$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…0ef4backed No | 34c | 486.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 67c | 481.39$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 66c | 475$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 33c | 462$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 33c | 447$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 34c | 439$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 76c | 427.53$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 66c | 417$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 67c | 407$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 33c | 407$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 34c | 406$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 66c | 406$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 34c | 398$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 34c | 387$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 33c | 386$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed Yes | 67c | 386$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 66c | 378$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 34c | 376$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 66c | 373$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 34c | 334$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked No | 30c | 330.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…8432backed No | 34c | 297.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 292.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 66c | 291$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 66c | 289$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 69c | 288.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 67c | 278$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 34c | 278$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 71c | 277.01$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…1cefbacked No | 35c | 270.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 74c | 268.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 65c | 261.48$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 79c | 252.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 66c | 244$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 34c | 233$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 66c | 229$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 34c | 225$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 66c | 218$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 34c | 217$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 67c | 210.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 66c | 209$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…0775backed No | 33c | 198.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed No | 26c | 194.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 34c | 193$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 66c | 192$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 33c | 192$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 34c | 191$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 69c | 185.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…ad4bbacked No | 27c | 184.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 59c | 181.84$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 26c | 181.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 37cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 66c | 174$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 173.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddd…7264backed No | 29c | 172.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 73c | 169.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed Yes | 69c | 169.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 166.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…59dabacked No | 34c | 164.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a4…06f5backed No | 39c | 163.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…c581backed Yes | 63c | 159.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…f14fbacked No | 32c | 158.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…3e83backed No | 32c | 157.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…7cbabacked No | 24c | 153.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 45c | 145.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 138.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…6eeabacked No | 37c | 135.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 66c | 135$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 66c | 129$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 67c | 128$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.