Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755ce11832c912a0df9131609dc96c3a63b1881c4db72dfccf3ff526f12b762c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea42…330bbacked No | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 55c | 1,156$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 45c | 885$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 55c | 823$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 57c | 809.56$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.56 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 50c | 697.92$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.1 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 45c | 633$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 41c | 588.51$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.58 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 52c | 579$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.22 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 45c | 479$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked No | 63c | 450.1$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 55c | 443$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 64c | 442.84$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.63 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 45c | 385$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 39c | 380$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 61c | 380$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 360.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed Yes | 46c | 350$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…3907backed Yes | 58c | 342.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 61c | 340$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 52c | 323.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 43c | 305.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 299.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 296.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.56 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 39c | 294.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 73c | 258.92$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 50c | 229.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 48c | 208.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 26c | 205$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 50c | 200.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…d9b0backed No | 60c | 194.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3843…ac78backed No | 52c | 190.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 56c | 178.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 160.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…aeb9backed No | 63c | 158.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…9f0ebacked No | 62c | 145.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…8da6backed No | 56c | 141.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 52c | 135$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…78d8backed No | 65c | 126.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 54c | 111.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 30c | 107.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 46c | 101.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 100.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…5df4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 39c | 97.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 53c | 96.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 51c | 95.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…ddb8backed No | 53c | 93.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 44c | 91.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…b785backed Yes | 47c | 72.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed No | 60c | 68.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 60c | 67.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 44c | 67.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…f974backed No | 75c | 66.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 58.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 58c | 56.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…0040backed Yes | 41c | 53.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…d27cbacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…82c8backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 52c | 46.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 46.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked No | 57c | 43.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…9c4abacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…9678backed Yes | 47c | 40.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…624fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…fb30backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…6ef4backed No | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 52c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…1dabbacked No | 58c | 35.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…378fbacked Yes | 48c | 33.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 40c | 33.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…341cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 35c | 30.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…fa0ebacked Yes | 46c | 29.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…008dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…1b1ebacked No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 40c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…4f24backed No | 66c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.