Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3bba4db3b59de564923e78aebf80b29d94bc21022148f0426d114979822130f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,465$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 3,428$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…fbf1backed Yes | 1c | 3,420$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 7c | 2,954$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,847$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,485$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,968$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 3c | 1,921$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,805$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,582$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,477$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,466$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,238$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked Yes | 49c | 1,154$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 1c | 1,098$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,092$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 8c | 1,091$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…a188backed Yes | 20c | 983.39$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 891.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 77c | 829.08$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 24c | 756.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 749.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 709.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 67c | 669.81$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 21c | 666.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…3907backed Yes | 4c | 643.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 59c | 582.62$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 52c | 582.03$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 18c | 542.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 60c | 523.29$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.98 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 46c | 510.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…f76fbacked No | 64c | 501.05$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 7c | 445.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 16c | 377.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 8c | 370.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 48c | 356.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 66c | 354.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 354.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked No | 57c | 271.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 8c | 259.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 24c | 257$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 8c | 251.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 30c | 248.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 42c | 240.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 239$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 12c | 213.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…2481backed No | 39c | 211.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…502dbacked No | 49c | 204.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 202$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…d8c6backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 195.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed No | 63c | 190.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked No | 53c | 189.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 24c | 188.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed No | 55c | 181.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 56c | 178.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…0c8ebacked Yes | 18c | 168.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…8eeebacked Yes | 30c | 166.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 18c | 159.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 77c | 153.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…4ea5backed No | 39c | 142.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed No | 50c | 142.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…627abacked Yes | 70c | 141.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 137.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 74c | 134.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…dc0cbacked No | 38c | 134.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 28c | 133.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 34c | 126.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e19…3c52backed Yes | 17c | 122.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 59c | 119.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 54c | 115.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…3ba9backed Yes | 43c | 113.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 13c | 112.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 109.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1a…b2abbacked Yes | 46c | 109.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 46c | 108.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 37c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…8e6dbacked No | 44c | 102.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 32c | 101.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 64c | 100.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 15c | 99.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.