Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe04fb452098a145121bb3441ba07b87669f4463a0022f43ba3496373319dcca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed8…772abacked No | 2c | 3,110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked No | 29c | 1,207$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 61c | 1,079$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 62c | 1,048$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 42c | 1,029$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 38c | 990$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 978.21$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 63c | 943$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 38c | 739$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 40c | 734$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.74 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 61c | 650$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked No | 29c | 634.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 58c | 615$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 61c | 607$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed No | 16c | 591.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 38c | 583$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 62c | 553$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 42c | 552$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 28c | 549.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 37c | 539$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 62c | 521$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 37c | 509$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…9e85backed Yes | 79c | 508.21$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 21c | 488.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 57c | 485$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.55 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 61c | 483$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 39c | 476$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 13c | 475.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 37c | 475$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…156dbacked Yes | 72c | 465.52$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 42c | 451$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 58c | 445$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 62c | 434$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 38c | 434$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 57c | 434$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 63c | 398$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 42c | 384$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 73c | 382.32$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4580backed No | 27c | 369.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…7428backed No | 3c | 367.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 69c | 364.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 71c | 360$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df3…e25abacked No | 24c | 358.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 75c | 350.85$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 39c | 347$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 8c | 344.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 325.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 14c | 312.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 27c | 295.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 22c | 294.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 62c | 289$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 60c | 284.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 278.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 73c | 276.65$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed No | 25c | 271.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 66c | 269.79$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 26c | 257.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 77c | 245.61$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…ecd3backed No | 43c | 230.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 226.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…92acbacked No | 22c | 225.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 224.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 63c | 219$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 57c | 219$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 63c | 215$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9226…ea1abacked No | 23c | 213.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 39c | 212$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 37c | 197$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 62c | 194.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 181$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed No | 39c | 174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 38c | 164$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 39c | 151$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 22c | 148.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…c581backed Yes | 71c | 140.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 33c | 140$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…2578backed Yes | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6a7ebacked No | 21c | 135.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 13c | 128.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed Yes | 78c | 128.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…d9e0backed Yes | 64c | 121.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 38c | 116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed No | 24c | 112.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 80c | 111.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…6db5backed No | 23c | 107.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 26c | 101.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.