Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21271ee370ddac7fd7ff5b1729781e61a3342365864ca3ff959e80c73ba9e72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,714$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…af7abacked Yes | 5c | 2,885$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed Yes | 38c | 2,047$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,782$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 1c | 1,702$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,034$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 41c | 999.97$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 44c | 889.56$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…12aabacked No | 64c | 867.93$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 779.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 66c | 740.67$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.87 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 10c | 700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…d18bbacked Yes | 6c | 677.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 25c | 606.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 25c | 589.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 49c | 588.78$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 60c | 583.73$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.24 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed No | 61c | 571.89$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 7c | 549$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…9f4dbacked No | 60c | 533.58$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 35c | 461.56$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 439.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 42c | 436.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 427.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked No | 66c | 422.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…b0bdbacked No | 54c | 410.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 55c | 405.16$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 70c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 36c | 399.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 3c | 389.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 52c | 381.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 60c | 353.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 58c | 346.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…5168backed No | 53c | 346.45$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 61c | 340.48$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 318.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 6c | 305.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 69c | 297.49$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…5dcabacked No | 47c | 297.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 63c | 293.55$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 26c | 280.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 39c | 272.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b4…ddf8backed Yes | 37c | 267.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…a188backed Yes | 8c | 264.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 39c | 259.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 253.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 250.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 11c | 244.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 50c | 242.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 9c | 242.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…5158backed No | 43c | 234.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 21c | 233.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 232.09$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 45c | 223.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 16c | 222.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 16c | 221.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed No | 64c | 220.59$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 27c | 196.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 195.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…8e6dbacked No | 54c | 184.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…66c2backed Yes | 58c | 174.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed No | 58c | 173.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes | 17c | 173.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 39c | 173.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…4b61backed No | 35c | 166.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…5a70backed No | 60c | 166.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…dc0cbacked No | 30c | 165.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f78…6423backed No | 63c | 157.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked No | 78c | 157.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 74c | 156.63$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 47c | 155.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked Yes | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 72c | 139.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 54c | 137.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d0c7backed No | 63c | 130.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 65c | 129.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed No | 65c | 122.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b7…6b85backed No | 57c | 121.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 63c | 120.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…7414backed Yes | 75c | 119.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 40c | 117.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afb…7c14backed No | 44c | 110.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Yes | 37c | 106.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…4772backed No | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…5958backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +141%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…6648backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…8280backed Yes | 74c | 94.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 66cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…158cbacked No | 53c | 94.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 62c | 89.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 89.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.