Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e43d8258680e8f8daf3b85104d9d712794b067f8edd0b79b3e15df29dfca148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf331…2978backed No | 0c | 31,593$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7658backed Yes | 57c | 15,700$8,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,751 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 51c | 7,872$4,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.91 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…4419backed No | 53c | 3,931$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…6452backed No | 2c | 3,800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +447.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…7e31backed Yes | 56c | 2,806$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…5536backed No | 44c | 2,800$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…b1d0backed No | 32c | 2,200$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…d018backed Yes | 68c | 2,200$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 50c | 2,147$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.82 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed No | 48c | 1,834$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked No | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 45c | 1,346$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 67c | 1,092$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.41 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 11c | 902.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked No | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b09…f3fbbacked Yes | 45c | 879.99$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 9c | 850$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 774.34$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.42 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 44c | 676.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 666$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 57c | 653.51$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…0128backed Yes | 71c | 640$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed No | 29c | 640$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 55c | 624.88$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…a943backed No | 62c | 600.03$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 52c | 578.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba3…a811backed Yes | 70c | 568.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 41c | 554.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.44 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 53c | 489.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed No | 30c | 484.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 41c | 481.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0c…00f4backed Yes | 72c | 479.34$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 58c | 479.03$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 14c | 462.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 65c | 431.51$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 71c | 430.54$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 398.6$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…5e5ebacked Yes | 40c | 387$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 9c | 375$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 44c | 367.84$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 26c | 352.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…4fffbacked No | 42c | 350.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…b843backed Yes | 44c | 338.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 13c | 325$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a05…7b0abacked No | 38c | 321.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 63c | 318.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 44c | 305.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 302.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…7487backed Yes | 60c | 302.14$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 66c | 301.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed No | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed Yes | 51c | 294.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 48c | 285.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 52c | 282.92$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed No | 37c | 273.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…bf43backed No | 15c | 265.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 42c | 255.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…86c0backed No | 39c | 254.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…4c0fbacked No | 43c | 254.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed No | 41c | 245.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…06b1backed No | 39c | 245$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 19c | 240.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed Yes | 75c | 240.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 41c | 230.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…69a6backed No | 44c | 224.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 49c | 219.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 46c | 215.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 213.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 54c | 205.42$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 40c | 203.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…3b02backed No | 51c | 196.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b31…7358backed No | 58c | 195.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b3…56eebacked No | 37c | 180.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…86b3backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 28c | 170$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 9c | 168.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…e370backed Yes | 48c | 165.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…1df8backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 62c | 162.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…61bfbacked Yes | 69c | 152$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…f255backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 56c | 146.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked No | 51c | 143$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 52c | 138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed Yes | 72c | 134.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 27c | 128.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.