Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d6cae5436e23d280a978bdcba71aad22d3d912150cf81e67f9cf51c8fd00c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4566…5319backed No | 2c | 14,698$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0837…620abacked No | 8c | 6,005$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 74c | 5,018$3,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…eb27backed No | 0c | 4,743$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…a7edbacked No | 2c | 4,436$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed No | 2c | 4,154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…2c5fbacked No | 5c | 3,948$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 3c | 3,784$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 37c | 3,323$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.41 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…3b78backed No | 1c | 2,582$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 33c | 1,206$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 1,128$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 44c | 1,048$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 37c | 941.68$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…309abacked No | 2c | 895$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…b0bdbacked No | 44c | 856.43$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 843.2$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.28 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 12c | 786.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 25c | 771.72$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…5789backed No | 3c | 704.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Yes | 42c | 704.65$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…d258backed No | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 624.62$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.61 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 68c | 622.02$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 30c | 608.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.87 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…52cdbacked No | 37c | 585.17$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 64c | 581.02$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 565.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 71c | 555.71$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 4c | 535.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed No | 8c | 529.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 522.6$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.68 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 47c | 519.21$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 517$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 47c | 500.94$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.08 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…c490backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 60c | 498.47$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.39 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 55c | 479.72$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 42c | 471.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 64c | 471.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 70c | 469.7$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.68 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 70c | 467.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.89 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 54c | 455.55$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 37c | 442$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 434.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked No | 57c | 428.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…d6e6backed No | 66c | 427.21$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed No | 72c | 418.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…8a7dbacked No | 28c | 417.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 66c | 399.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…308dbacked No | 25c | 398.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…2d99backed No | 63c | 363.51$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…dc0cbacked No | 41c | 360.35$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 72c | 347.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 39c | 332.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 330.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 320.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 43c | 316.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…66c2backed Yes | 68c | 296.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…df1bbacked No | 7c | 294.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00c…1508backed No | 57c | 293.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…4ab3backed No | 73c | 285.85$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 38c | 285.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…f6bdbacked No | 47c | 266.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked No | 72c | 263.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 74c | 263.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…b720backed No | 29c | 263.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 39c | 259.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 37c | 253.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.53 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…508ebacked Yes | 79c | 253.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 251.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 40c | 250.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 74c | 240$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…46f5backed No | 65c | 218.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 209.78$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 70c | 204.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 15c | 202.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 28c | 202.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…605fbacked Yes | 50c | 201.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…cdb7backed No | 30c | 200.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed No | 14c | 198.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 45c | 197.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 51c | 196.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…9898backed No | 53c | 190.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 64c | 188.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…77d6backed No | 27c | 181.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 30c | 179.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 11c | 173.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 33c | 169$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 38c | 167.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.