TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb244…95fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 55 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST5729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+196.5%+$160.02
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+132.6%+$132.56
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+174.6%+$43.87
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$135
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+174.6%+$43.87
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$35.44
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+113.2%+$183.43
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$120.31
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$55.13
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+364%+$419.06
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$22.7
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$631Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$631
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$421.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$120.09
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$117.13
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$63.09
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+183.2%+$61.76
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$77.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+227.1%+$247.25
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$65.91
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+251.3%+$84.07
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+127.3%+$127.27
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+177.8%+$35.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+40.6%+$74.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)backed RB Leipzig · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+203%+$40.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+147%+$29.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.7%+$94.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.