TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$338,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 385 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb2c…20c3backed No35c35,106$12,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,818.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x638f…fb41backed Yes65c35,106$22,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,818.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa14…5133backed Yes64c31,527$20,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,177.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9268…6ce0backed No36c31,527$11,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,177.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No73c16,804$12,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.367330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ff…8e9fbacked Yes33c12,381$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No61c6,086$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…1743backed Yes35c4,324$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes36c4,047$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf398…51e2backed Yes10c3,983$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…aa46backed No70c3,365$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.11662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No21c3,342$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.389435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8740…490dbacked Yes75c3,271$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No47c3,158$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.032142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…e2c5backed Yes26c3,019$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.832416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcea…0a2fbacked No62c3,009$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.62757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes34c2,869$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.662733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No32c2,696$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.458864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c2,692$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.7945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes79c2,611$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.784020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0d1…87a7backed No76c2,435$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes8c2,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.54277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes25c1,720$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.646659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes49c1,697$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.797948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c94…f163backed Yes52c1,638$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…4ccabacked Yes60c1,555$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked No73c1,494$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.032821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed Yes7c1,473$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,386$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5921713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c1,292$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.3719011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb6…f162backed Yes46c1,239$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.682245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No57c1,236$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.749725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x104a…3824backed No42c1,181$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes51c1,098$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes3c1,091$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes42c1,076$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.6125731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No72c1,020$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.7310426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb4e…2aeebacked No49c1,008$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd13…b4febacked No48c966.3$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No73c953.05$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed Yes67c894.47$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes49c885.26$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.3312636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No72c875.49$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.642055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce70…b4f4backed Yes7c865.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0782…616dbacked Yes70c851.83$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No44c848.59$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.727139.4%28 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes46c826.95$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.5211030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Yes37c812.67$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.611457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No31c811.51$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.315648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No46c801.84$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.862128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes47c798.47$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked Yes7c759.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No58c743.96$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.561526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No70c726$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5211850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x469b…bfdabacked Yes44c720.56$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e6…8454backed Yes79c688.77$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed No25c672.84$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.777536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c670.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.621175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes39c669.3$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No66c661.87$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.174850%24 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No37c608.56$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.661872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes50c608.01$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d4…f7ccbacked Yes9c597.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+159%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes59c575.23$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9440…83b3backed No44c557.56$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed Yes24c543$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.741145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes28c541.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.05160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7be2…c5efbacked No43c532.51$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+80%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6819…fb70backed No11c530$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+56.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes57c528.07$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.521533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2e…615bbacked Yes44c510$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6865…5320backed No56c510$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4927…3a5ebacked Yes61c502.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked No59c500$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes26c500$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes27c497.73$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.964422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked Yes55c480$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf2…1d7ebacked Yes23c470$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe662…c121backed Yes37c437.27$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9a…a56fbacked No46c425$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes4c423.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6711636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…45cdbacked Yes25c406.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes53c399.93$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.961030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e10…e039backed No44c397.78$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.584100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes26c382.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes52c378.48$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.698644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c377.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.85454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed No27c374.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes38c373.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.181926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2623…845dbacked Yes61c373.55$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes7c372.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.58712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No24c362.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.392060%12 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x62f7…662cbacked Yes55c361.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x054f…875fbacked Yes56c360.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes78c349.19$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.572751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd4…e335backed Yes38c346.18$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Yes70c339.99$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2373135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes43c321.9$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.427946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d4b…7b59backed Yes6c321.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.