TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf901…2264

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Weather at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,643Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,642.99
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$639.52
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.97
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,252.46
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$341
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$134
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.25
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+416%+$2,295.07
Will France win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$335
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$586.12
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$702.89
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,385Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+101.3%+$1,403.52
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.47
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$120.39
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$36.05
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+27%+$27
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+137.3%+$149.51
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$137.45
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$75.64
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+67.3%+$33.67
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$190.14
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$525
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$448.77
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$548
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+1,328.6%+$278.93
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick27cpaid+139.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$197
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$949Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$949.5
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$3,190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+124.3%+$3,964.32
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$7,086Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+255.2%+$18,082.37
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$367.27
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+1,139.7%+$1,379
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+109.1%+$1,200
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.63
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$51.01
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+86.9%+$437.89
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+46.6%+$23.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,451.57
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+39.1%+$97.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.