Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be84d9a43d2d17eacffa36b6aa4a5ec43016498b2cf6b128e4db51876bb95a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $232,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 49,471$10,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,708.18 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…3e9bbacked No | 56c | 15,846$8,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,947.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 54c | 5,217$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 54c | 5,095$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 50c | 4,790$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 66c | 4,590$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed No | 47c | 4,429$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 20c | 4,332$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 37c | 3,455$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.18 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 52c | 3,369$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 48c | 3,000$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 56c | 2,935$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 48c | 2,810$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 2,400$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…7e7abacked No | 41c | 2,332$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…943dbacked No | 44c | 2,292$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 47c | 2,181$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 36c | 1,742$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked No | 43c | 1,703$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,702$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 1,574$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 77c | 1,464$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…c1b1backed Yes | 41c | 1,450$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…357cbacked No | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Yes | 13c | 1,358$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 16c | 1,320$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 50c | 1,155$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 38c | 1,119$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,012$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…3e76backed No | 70c | 1,004$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 77c | 1,000$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 49c | 999.75$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 11c | 900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +407%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…502bbacked No | 56c | 820$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…0df1backed Yes | 44c | 820$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6fffbacked Yes | 13c | 792.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 757.6$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…173abacked No | 70c | 756.14$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…336ebacked No | 78c | 669.88$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 5c | 658.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 629.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 39c | 621.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.61 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 589.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 566.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked No | 70c | 565.6$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…a504backed No | 54c | 555.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 20c | 553.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 46c | 534.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 44c | 533$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked No | 66c | 510.09$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 36c | 500.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 69c | 500$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,512.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 51c | 499.94$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked No | 47c | 481.66$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 474.7$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…615bbacked Yes | 48c | 460$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…e85cbacked No | 52c | 460$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…5320backed No | 52c | 460$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…1887backed Yes | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6d…fb82backed Yes | 16c | 395.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 65c | 392.13$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 50c | 386.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 47c | 384.51$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Yes | 65c | 383.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…2f0bbacked No | 76c | 383.21$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 38c | 370$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +294.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…b042backed No | 42c | 350$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 71c | 336.87$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 53c | 335.07$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 48c | 333.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…0e4fbacked No | 43c | 327.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked Yes | 63c | 319.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 72c | 317.11$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 45c | 300$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 76c | 295.45$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 68c | 289.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fc9fbacked No | 71c | 282.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…9223backed Yes | 25c | 277.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 273$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…6b39backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…f075backed No | 41c | 269.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…5502backed Yes | 13c | 268.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed Yes | 50c | 254.65$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed No | 68c | 250$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 48c | 245.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…90aabacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 37c | 236.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da4…7c7abacked No | 52c | 225.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…b0d0backed Yes | 35c | 219.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 51c | 210.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.