TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc9b6…9b6a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
232
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Cricket at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST4143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$4,374Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,373.79
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$175
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$52.78
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.01
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+207.1%+$1,005.69
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,755Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$2,754.6
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+983%+$4,019.38
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+1,023.6%+$1,820.44
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+1,152.9%+$1,367.75
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+733.3%+$484
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+353.3%+$996.83
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+29.9%+$22.99
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$359.49
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.32
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+97.8%+$90.81
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+157.7%+$305.99
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$59
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.08
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.52
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$1,178.07
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$668Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+72.5%+$484.53
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$335.27
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Zelenskyy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+125.8%+$390
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.13
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+391.8%+$477.99
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$302.3
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$962Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$961.66
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$695.36
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$490.13
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$7,462Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+43%+$3,210.22
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+96.1%+$182.07
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$69.78
Will Saif Ali Khan be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.78
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$285.57
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,426.51
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14,722Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+106%+$15,611.54
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$150.49
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30,137Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+61.4%+$18,489.36
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,307Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+164.7%+$5,447.03
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,639Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,639.37
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$438
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.12
Google forced to sell Chrome?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+193.3%+$1,384
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$105.44
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$471.8
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.67
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+178.9%+$283.72
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+179.1%+$855.34
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$70.07
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$154.93
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,613.69
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,397Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,397.5
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$370
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$491.6
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+80.2%+$890
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Simion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,828Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+34.9%+$638.84
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,440
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+133.7%+$608.7
Yoon reinstated as President before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,044Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$1,177.66
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$5,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,105.17
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+50.9%+$135
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.81
Will SK win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+66.7%+$12.14
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.81
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,068Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+39.8%+$822.67
Will Brazil unban X before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$27
X banned in Brazil by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT+1,900%+$190
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,196Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$804
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$6,702Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+124.2%+$8,327.37
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$219
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$6,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,054.99
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$212.34
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$157.57
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$451.53
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+48.1%+$649.99
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+222.6%+$992.46
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15,470Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$15,470.36
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+40.8%+$116
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+33.3%+$225.26
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$656Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+34.7%+$227.33
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,531Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+30.6%+$468.59
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,701Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+90.6%+$4,256.78
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,066Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,066.47
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$390
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+139.6%+$67
Iran military response by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$36
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+49.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$147
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,035Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,035.44
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.29
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+247.1%+$907.36
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+230.5%+$427.69
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+102.2%+$438.8
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$422.86
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$155.1
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$880Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$1,119.98
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,794Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+64%+$2,427.7
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$607.5
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.1
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+273.1%+$1,463.27
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$101.14
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+302.5%+$1,781.47
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+37%+$27
Will Zelensky say "Kursk" during his UN address?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT+66.8%+$334.99
Will Zelensky say "nuclear" during his UN address?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.95
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$3,574Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,574.38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$5,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,000
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+135.3%+$1,150
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$138.59
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$94.97
Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$82
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+280.7%+$383.91
Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+117.4%+$64.43
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$906Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+100.3%+$909
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$841Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+84.6%+$710.89
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$607.22
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$419.94
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+62.1%+$280.96
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$104.4
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 15 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.91
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.15
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.3
Will another country win the 3rd most medals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$25
Will Mykolas Alekna (LTU) win Gold in Discus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$280
Will any other athlete win gold in 5000m W?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$9.92
Will Simone Biles (USA) win Gold in Women’s Vault Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$10
Simone Biles 2 or fewer gold medals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT+31.8%+$50.27
Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,390
Will Gretchen Walsh (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2024, EDT+203%+$670
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$16.24
Will Australia win Gold in Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2024, EDT+31.6%+$10
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.24
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$58.69
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$230
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$859.99
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$341.78
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$402.23
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$190
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+257.1%+$1,440
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$755Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+98.7%+$745
Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnLbacked Mitch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+58.7%+$370
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+71.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,018.61
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$152
Will "Conclave" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$27.39
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+354.5%+$1,560
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,062Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+47.4%+$976.55
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+230%+$231.38
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+76.2%+$346
'Speak No Evil' grosses >$13m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2024, EDT+127.3%+$112
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$100.94
All 9 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2024, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$119.48
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$249.36
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Gukesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$8,197Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+28.6%+$2,342.52
Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$18.08
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+78.6%+$17.6
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$178.24
Will China win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$48.6
Will India win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT+80.1%+$222.83
Will India win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$757Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT+36.4%+$275.19
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump comment again on drones in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$46.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebron tweet again in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$105
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$76.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,127Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,126.57
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.