Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9e407d51ae6f81ffd71d40a972be8987f0d43601cb178253ad0ce4837ffb17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 3c | 10,978$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.84 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 9c | 10,487$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.73 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 6,703$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 1c | 6,594$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 3c | 6,549$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 6,525$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 6,512$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 4c | 5,506$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.84 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 0c | 4,179$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 62c | 4,153$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 15c | 2,457$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.23 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 29c | 1,930$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.44 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,836$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 6c | 1,781$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,667$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.13 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 8c | 1,571$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 7c | 1,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,377$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,350$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 62c | 1,304$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 12c | 1,021$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 1c | 916.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 3c | 612.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 61c | 535.81$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 46c | 477.39$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 40c | 461.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 8c | 411.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7653…42e7backed Yes | 13c | 380.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd9…d3a6backed Yes | 9c | 294.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed No | 78c | 257.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…99dbbacked Yes | 61c | 206.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 47c | 196.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed No | 49c | 192.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…8911backed Yes | 11c | 177.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 22c | 152.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 15c | 150.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 8c | 142.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…9765backed Yes | 15c | 84.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 78c | 76.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…06d2backed No | 61c | 70.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…9ed1backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa385…7b87backed Yes | 36c | 66.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…4b0ebacked No | 79c | 63.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 77c | 30.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…cb1dbacked No | 78c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.