TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x55db…7ce1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.9
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+56.4%+$425.27
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$227.49
Tesla bot at Trump inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$158.01
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$127.1
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$105.87
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$58.9
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+156.4%+$244
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$53.04
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+105.1%+$388.04
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+566.7%+$181.74
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+233.3%+$700
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$90
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.92
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.06
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$45
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$18
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$110
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$401.67
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$250
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+153.2%+$459.8
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Portnoy Parlay - Super Bowl LIXbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$393.58
Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$743.31
Will AJ Brown win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$21.61
Will Travis Kelce win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$91.95
Trump and Taylor Swift shake hands at Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$110.13
Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift at Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$187.96
Will someone score an octopus in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$660.3
Will Super Bowl LIX go to overtime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$149.01
Scorigami in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$185
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$670.54
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$714.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$452.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.