Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a533c938200a10df86423dfbe621a2f36bfd4abc457615cf4992ed721c566bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,625,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,759,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,625,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 1,889,252$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.81 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…0609backed Yes | 0c | 640,864$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 0c | 538,621$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…36f2backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fd…448ebacked Yes | 0c | 284,960$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…0973backed Yes | 0c | 270,633$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…6f92backed Yes | 0c | 267,050$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…4379backed Yes | 0c | 248,141$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 0c | 214,464$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…5180backed Yes | 0c | 208,546$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cee…e8c8backed Yes | 0c | 207,658$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…b08ebacked Yes | 0c | 200,800$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0170backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…825cbacked Yes | 0c | 198,914$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…cab0backed Yes | 0c | 164,541$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…f0dfbacked Yes | 0c | 161,768$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…11e0backed Yes | 0c | 123,453$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…9ba8backed Yes | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…64e0backed Yes | 0c | 117,132$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…8907backed Yes | 0c | 113,180$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…ede8backed Yes | 0c | 111,098$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…7764backed Yes | 0c | 109,820$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…bf40backed Yes | 0c | 106,754$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…c28bbacked Yes | 0c | 106,731$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…4b18backed Yes | 0c | 105,986$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…a20fbacked Yes | 0c | 102,231$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…44c5backed Yes | 0c | 100,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…b0a4backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…bedcbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…c44ebacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…6a67backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…edfdbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…8d8fbacked Yes | 0c | 99,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65d…f943backed Yes | 0c | 99,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…2563backed Yes | 0c | 99,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…3057backed Yes | 0c | 99,028$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…1ffcbacked Yes | 0c | 98,587$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…6266backed Yes | 0c | 82,360$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 0c | 80,172$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 0c | 77,301$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…849dbacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c73dbacked Yes | 0c | 61,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…fa4ebacked Yes | 0c | 60,070$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…82debacked Yes | 0c | 59,890$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd7…2f21backed Yes | 0c | 59,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4523backed Yes | 0c | 58,657$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…0955backed Yes | 0c | 57,666$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…eecebacked Yes | 0c | 57,443$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…9759backed Yes | 0c | 56,773$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…d3dabacked Yes | 0c | 56,667$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…0a23backed Yes | 0c | 56,564$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf818…91c2backed Yes | 0c | 56,533$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…6d37backed Yes | 0c | 56,454$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…19b3backed Yes | 0c | 55,643$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…9ef9backed Yes | 0c | 55,544$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…9352backed Yes | 0c | 55,543$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ee…2137backed Yes | 0c | 55,455$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…eac0backed Yes | 0c | 54,443$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…74a2backed Yes | 0c | 54,435$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3439backed Yes | 0c | 54,345$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…e11cbacked Yes | 0c | 54,333$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…8288backed Yes | 0c | 54,333$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…fb7abacked Yes | 0c | 54,333$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…43f3backed Yes | 0c | 54,324$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…d39ebacked Yes | 0c | 54,302$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcf2backed Yes | 0c | 54,232$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…f971backed Yes | 0c | 54,231$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…a521backed Yes | 0c | 53,322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e6…428ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…ec75backed Yes | 0c | 53,322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…764cbacked Yes | 0c | 53,322$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…9c1ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,312$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc71…30c2backed Yes | 0c | 53,121$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…703cbacked Yes | 0c | 52,322$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…9e5cbacked Yes | 0c | 52,321$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…9cb3backed Yes | 0c | 52,311$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…3d77backed Yes | 0c | 52,212$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…b38bbacked Yes | 0c | 52,122$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…4843backed Yes | 0c | 51,975$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca1…82bfbacked Yes | 0c | 50,999$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…2d38backed Yes | 0c | 50,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…aec7backed Yes | 0c | 50,432$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…7d00backed Yes | 0c | 50,344$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…2aa2backed Yes | 0c | 50,333$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…5d27backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…5aa7backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…53c0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…0e0bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…c071backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…a595backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…07eebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…54bbbacked Yes | 0c | 49,667$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 0c | 47,790$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…f05ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…4f8ebacked Yes | 0c | 44,890$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…c1c5backed Yes | 0c | 44,243$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 0c | 40,483$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.