TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,625,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,759,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,625,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,889,252$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.81244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4100…0609backed Yes0c640,864$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+119.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed Yes0c538,621$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188d…36f2backed Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fd…448ebacked Yes0c284,960$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead8…0973backed Yes0c270,633$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e50…6f92backed Yes0c267,050$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a35…4379backed Yes0c248,141$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes0c214,464$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.132119%4 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f62…5180backed Yes0c208,546$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cee…e8c8backed Yes0c207,658$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x365a…b08ebacked Yes0c200,800$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d32…0170backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…825cbacked Yes0c198,914$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-68.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10a…cab0backed Yes0c164,541$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5d…f0dfbacked Yes0c161,768$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee25…11e0backed Yes0c123,453$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.811010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ed…9ba8backed Yes0c120,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd06…64e0backed Yes0c117,132$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad67…8907backed Yes0c113,180$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc540…ede8backed Yes0c111,098$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f11…7764backed Yes0c109,820$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb30…bf40backed Yes0c106,754$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa238…c28bbacked Yes0c106,731$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffb…4b18backed Yes0c105,986$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c4…a20fbacked Yes0c102,231$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…44c5backed Yes0c100,350$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.35230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0260…b0a4backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8167…bedcbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c02…c44ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc1…6a67backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf9…edfdbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb515…8d8fbacked Yes0c99,980$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65d…f943backed Yes0c99,934$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84a…2563backed Yes0c99,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0460…3057backed Yes0c99,028$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2709…1ffcbacked Yes0c98,587$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…6266backed Yes0c82,360$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes0c80,172$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.34128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes0c77,301$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…849dbacked Yes0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c73dbacked Yes0c61,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b0…fa4ebacked Yes0c60,070$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f40…82debacked Yes0c59,890$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd7…2f21backed Yes0c59,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d1…4523backed Yes0c58,657$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7534…0955backed Yes0c57,666$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f2…eecebacked Yes0c57,443$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abb…9759backed Yes0c56,773$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409b…d3dabacked Yes0c56,667$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e01…0a23backed Yes0c56,564$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf818…91c2backed Yes0c56,533$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260c…6d37backed Yes0c56,454$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc86c…19b3backed Yes0c55,643$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf194…9ef9backed Yes0c55,544$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797b…9352backed Yes0c55,543$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ee…2137backed Yes0c55,455$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb085…eac0backed Yes0c54,443$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda00…74a2backed Yes0c54,435$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21c…3439backed Yes0c54,345$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ed…e11cbacked Yes0c54,333$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ba…8288backed Yes0c54,333$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfde…fb7abacked Yes0c54,333$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…43f3backed Yes0c54,324$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc5…d39ebacked Yes0c54,302$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d30…dcf2backed Yes0c54,232$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60a…f971backed Yes0c54,231$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e90…a521backed Yes0c53,322$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e6…428ebacked Yes0c53,322$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x118c…ec75backed Yes0c53,322$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0083…764cbacked Yes0c53,322$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b8…9c1ebacked Yes0c53,312$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc71…30c2backed Yes0c53,121$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b6…703cbacked Yes0c52,322$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…9e5cbacked Yes0c52,321$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b2…9cb3backed Yes0c52,311$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084a…3d77backed Yes0c52,212$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e4…b38bbacked Yes0c52,122$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28df…4843backed Yes0c51,975$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca1…82bfbacked Yes0c50,999$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db8…2d38backed Yes0c50,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0825…aec7backed Yes0c50,432$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ea…7d00backed Yes0c50,344$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71c…2aa2backed Yes0c50,333$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…5d27backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f9…5aa7backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb8…53c0backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5c…0e0bbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec5…c071backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e4…a595backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x968e…07eebacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9023…54bbbacked Yes0c49,667$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a8…8966backed Yes0c47,790$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd9…f05ebacked Yes0c47,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8de…4f8ebacked Yes0c44,890$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafd…c1c5backed Yes0c44,243$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes0c40,483$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.