Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,660,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,302,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,660,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 66c | 285,345$189,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189,303.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 77c | 253,038$195,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195,170.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9daf…af52backed Yes | 48c | 250,875$121,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,028.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked Yes | 69c | 221,960$152,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,969.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 59c | 89,543$52,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,766.41 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 70c | 85,989$60,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,249.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…cf61backed Yes | 67c | 75,101$50,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,307.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 80c | 72,040$57,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,556.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes | 56c | 65,000$36,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,439.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 68c | 62,417$42,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,344.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…2542backed Yes | 64c | 61,796$39,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,577 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 48c | 54,351$25,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,974.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 60c | 49,617$29,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,996.26 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed No | 53c | 46,164$24,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,480.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…e6aebacked Yes | 55c | 45,167$24,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,989.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…690abacked Yes | 59c | 44,095$25,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,992.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes | 70c | 43,711$30,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,663.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 63c | 43,197$27,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,291.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes | 57c | 42,189$24,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,188.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 75c | 41,104$30,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,847.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…00dbbacked Yes | 50c | 38,926$19,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,558.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748c…adabbacked Yes | 64c | 38,794$24,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,660.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 79c | 36,763$29,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,002.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…962fbacked Yes | 49c | 31,224$15,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,172.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…2826backed Yes | 44c | 30,313$13,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,362.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab9…f0c0backed Yes | 45c | 29,651$13,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,298.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed No | 15c | 28,424$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,108.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 77c | 27,867$21,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,502.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes | 48c | 25,197$12,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,059.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 45c | 24,934$11,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,135.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 45c | 23,213$10,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,351.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 59c | 22,328$13,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,226.06 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 50c | 22,220$11,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,171.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 54c | 22,042$11,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,861.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…3975backed Yes | 42c | 21,527$8,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,965.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Yes | 51c | 21,379$10,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,924.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 59c | 21,337$12,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,531.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f9…13f9backed Yes | 47c | 21,324$9,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…d98bbacked Yes | 47c | 20,898$9,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,867.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Yes | 54c | 20,683$11,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,103.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…a6d8backed Yes | 53c | 20,065$10,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,625.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 68c | 20,035$13,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,543.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…b4dcbacked Yes | 50c | 20,001$9,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,992.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…695fbacked Yes | 52c | 19,490$10,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,197.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 58c | 19,448$11,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,271.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…130dbacked Yes | 75c | 19,159$14,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,369.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 66c | 18,993$12,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,517.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 53c | 18,955$9,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,955.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…ac7dbacked Yes | 77c | 18,409$14,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,157.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…cb40backed Yes | 55c | 18,255$9,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,966.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5b…799cbacked Yes | 46c | 18,003$8,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,360.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 55c | 17,551$9,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,592.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 50c | 17,500$8,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…6245backed Yes | 50c | 17,476$8,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,750.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 60c | 17,046$10,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,167.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes | 47c | 16,822$7,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,979.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…95c6backed Yes | 60c | 16,661$9,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…b167backed Yes | 47c | 16,628$7,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,832 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 62c | 16,155$10,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,028.39 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…fdfcbacked Yes | 54c | 15,690$8,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,472.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…56cdbacked Yes | 41c | 15,530$6,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,440.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…ac98backed Yes | 61c | 15,483$9,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,509.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 64c | 15,180$9,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,701.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…73f8backed Yes | 67c | 14,941$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…68a6backed Yes | 65c | 14,635$9,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,453.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 44c | 14,372$6,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,346.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…a4f4backed Yes | 60c | 14,146$8,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,445.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 53c | 13,921$7,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,357.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…64c5backed Yes | 75c | 13,771$10,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,327.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 59c | 13,357$7,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,861.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…d4dfbacked Yes | 45c | 13,294$5,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,988.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…9633backed Yes | 75c | 13,273$9,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,961.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ed…710ebacked Yes | 72c | 13,101$9,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,370.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f8…0856backed Yes | 54c | 12,762$6,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,896.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b1a5backed Yes | 56c | 12,660$7,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,033.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes | 61c | 12,472$7,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,549.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…4301backed Yes | 45c | 12,384$5,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,616.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 42c | 12,337$5,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 12,196$8,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,916.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 56c | 12,135$6,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,747.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…ffd1backed Yes | 67c | 11,995$8,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,010 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896b…f8f3backed Yes | 40c | 11,955$4,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,835.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed No | 54c | 11,767$6,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,412.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed No | 53c | 11,700$6,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…f8d9backed Yes | 49c | 11,695$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 75c | 11,513$8,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,635.91 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…e602backed Yes | 42c | 11,500$4,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,835 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…d6ddbacked Yes | 59c | 11,482$6,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,721.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…157abacked Yes | 47c | 11,428$5,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,425 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 61c | 11,340$6,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,930.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 70c | 11,188$7,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,841.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…fb99backed Yes | 65c | 11,156$7,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,251.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 55c | 10,845$5,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,921.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…aa68backed Yes | 46c | 10,812$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…7a56backed Yes | 47c | 10,694$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…c276backed No | 27c | 10,649$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,824.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…e251backed Yes | 47c | 10,518$4,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 62c | 10,080$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…825cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…e87fbacked No | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.