TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0cc9…fc51

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2025, EST3961.5%24 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.25
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.25
Will Southampton win on 2025-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+26.6%+$60.25
Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$262.5
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+42.9%+$15
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+29%+$102.06
Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$230.66
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+44.9%+$124
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+27.4%+$141.7
Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$47.3
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$3,319.98
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,464Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+42.9%+$627.22
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$2,934.45
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$11.25
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$96.44
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+137.3%+$40.5
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,703Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$1,702.86
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,522Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$1,521.82
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,403Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+38.5%+$926.04
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,591Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+75.4%+$1,952.39
Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$689Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+29.5%+$203.54
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+40.1%+$125.4
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$3,075.27
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+38.9%+$42
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST3871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$186.18
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$322.83
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20.63
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.68
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,877Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+45.5%+$2,675.95
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,029Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+40.6%+$417.97
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,551.94
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,279Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+27.1%+$617.86
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$904.11
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$657Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+31.2%+$204.82
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,543Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+90.1%+$5,895.37
Falcons vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST+44.7%+$170
Cardinals vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,454Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+58.7%+$1,441.02
Seahawks vs. Bearsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,406Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+47.1%+$1,603.02
Buccaneers vs. Cowboysbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$542.5
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$575.62
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+25%+$41.36
Giants vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,673Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+56%+$937.36
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+32.1%+$50.76
Broncos vs. Chargersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$715.27
Bills vs. Lionsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$6,552Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+43%+$2,817.92
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+25%+$10
Bengals vs. Titansbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,468Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+78.6%+$1,153.05
Jets vs. Jaguarsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,164Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+29.6%+$1,530.67
Rams vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$638.79
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2025, EST3743.2%16 W · 21 L-8.5wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-39.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
NBA — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+36.6%+$73.47
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+100%+$1,050
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,046Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+40.2%+$419.94
Wizards vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$515.48
Grizzlies vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$130.27
Wizards vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,395Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,395.36
Magic vs. Jazzbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$325
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$852Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+26.3%+$223.82
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$457.33
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$928Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+65.7%+$609.23
Rockets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Heat vs. Netsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+26.6%+$21
Celtics vs. Mavericksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,221Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+28.1%+$904.35
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$39.5
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Pelicans vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+25%+$100
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Heat vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+38.9%+$28
Raptors vs. Hawksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,431Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+28.8%+$700.27
Celtics vs. Warriorsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+35.1%+$26
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,371Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,370.83
Nets vs. Raptorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$378.89
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,640.42
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+28.2%+$26.85
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.43
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+38.3%+$17.71
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+41%+$155.2
Trudeau out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+34.2%+$51
Trudeau resigns before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,515Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+91.9%+$4,148.86
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$4,101.96
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,270Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+31.8%+$1,357.65
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,356Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$6,356.49
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,435Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+39.4%+$564.89
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,404Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+33.4%+$469.2
Will Bruno Engler win the 2024 Belo Horizonte mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$9.75
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+70.1%+$391.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-67.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
College Football — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ohio State vs. Texasbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$172
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+55.8%+$1,001.16
Penn State vs. Boise Statebacked Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$74.66
South Carolina vs. Illinoisbacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,314Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$1,313.79
Alabama vs. Michiganbacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$1,147.54
East Carolina vs. NC Statebacked East Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,906Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+31.8%+$1,560.79
Iowa State vs. Miamibacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$1,680.41
UConn vs. North Carolinabacked North Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$19.5
Pittsburgh vs. Toledobacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,043Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$1,043.09
South Florida vs. San José Statebacked San José State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$686Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$686.4
SMU vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+33.3%+$13.24
Memphis vs. West Virginiabacked West Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$11.49
Navy vs. Armybacked Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$130
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$84.62
Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+33.3%+$11.21
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+49.3%+$33
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$169.78
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,270Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+63.2%+$1,434.34
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+25.7%+$45.82
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+31%+$43.08
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$888Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+26.1%+$231.6
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-58%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+139.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Ducks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$159.35
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wingsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$42.77
NHL: Utah vs. Blackhawksbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$10
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AL Wildcard: Orioles vs. Royals Game 2backed Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT+46.1%+$45.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10,167.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,159Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$1,159.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.