TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel announces ceasefire by January 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$681,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$681,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $681,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24d2…1472backed No1c48,426$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77a…56e3backed No1c44,000$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4db…966ebacked No0c40,213$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed No0c32,731$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes80c17,875$14,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,656.8951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…573fbacked No1c15,322$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No32c14,717$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.9614724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No65c13,484$8,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,802.970%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5660…5e4bbacked No1c9,083$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf92…55cbbacked No46c8,663$3,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e1…d3fabacked No1c8,167$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a3…0a92backed No1c7,295$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0333…3b1dbacked No1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes41c6,762$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,961.5736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x771b…05e1backed No1c6,627$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No10c6,158$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.89567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa8…d94fbacked No2c5,900$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes56c5,614$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.6513850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761a…0e8ebacked No55c5,115$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9287…8556backed No1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes22c4,811$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,758.9842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked No1c4,720$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes20c4,640$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.9540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes52c4,576$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.582025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed No2c4,500$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No76c4,450$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick55cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes79c4,170$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.285354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed No20c3,653$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8584…5761backed No10c2,915$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad98…c58fbacked No1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes53c2,841$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.142045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes77c2,823$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.719647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes66c2,556$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.375143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No15c2,410$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.013644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked No1c2,355$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes64c2,208$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.8412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x969c…314cbacked No2c2,174$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes34c2,056$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.245950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9de…0dc5backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No56c1,980$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.847254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc26d…64b8backed No1c1,857$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40c…8192backed No1c1,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked No2c1,778$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No24c1,659$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9520736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked Yes78c1,539$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.631855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…79ebbacked No79c1,519$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes18c1,500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No17c1,471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No4c1,465$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.452634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed No19c1,292$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed No47c1,203$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.352544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes74c1,180$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.485028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No46c1,100$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff5…44cbbacked No15c1,071$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes30c1,070$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.15032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504316.3%7 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…03c2backed Yes37c941.03$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked No2c930.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No15c871.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.95128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-85.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked No14c848.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked No11c846.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes72c777.81$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.797651.3%39 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x174e…2a52backed No65c775.89$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes70c713.97$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.674334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddea…5b2bbacked No2c686.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-54.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…18c2backed No65c683.23$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes57c670.42$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed No26c667.88$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.91735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…848ebacked No21c645.12$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No15c629.15$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.37837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes80c626.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1913746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x320a…deb3backed No9c625.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245e…4e25backed No9c544.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…509cbacked Yes30c535.62$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+65.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4170…d0dcbacked No10c518.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…b7f5backed No19c513.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No56c497.55$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.451526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes48c474.89$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.271266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+95.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6325…6912backed No11c469.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed No68c438.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd1…195bbacked No8c417.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes29c404.05$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.873732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes50c400$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.311559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No8c398$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.451833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec75…84b1backed Yes41c346.26$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.941233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f99…255dbacked Yes44c342.73$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes43c326.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1916447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes18c320.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.941330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8992…1807backed No4c312.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f37…b248backed No8c312.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ae…bdf5backed No32c305.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed No67c275.01$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-58%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4700…3b08backed No64c269.21$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes77c260.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.823360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.