TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x174e…2a52

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Boxing at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Kennedy Nzechukwu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.53
Dana White's Contender Series: Kaik Brito vs. Namo Fazil (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Namo Fazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.87
Dana White's Contender Series: Logan Paxton vs. Cristian Perez (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Cristian Perez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$17.13
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.8
Will Jalin Turner win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$52.2
UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Eduardo Chapolin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.14
UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Tresean Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$74.18
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Aleksandar Rakic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$21.42
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Magomed Zaynukov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$6.88
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.2
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$68.4
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+100.9%+$35.28
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.95
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Josh Hokit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$49.72
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$70.48
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Edmen Shahbazyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.75
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Farés Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.41
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Iwo Baraniewski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.33
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Édgar Cháirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$25.47
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Ketlen Souza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.31
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perrybacked Perry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$37.55
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.76
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+157.1%+$355.18
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$139.28
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+145.1%+$958.97
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$56.38
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+41.7%+$20.85
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.5
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+151.3%+$151.35
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$501
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$24.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.