Us Politics · resolved market
Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa72dddd5e8456a6b4f83daf90c068a2e2e1cca9a6daef35797ff73f7cb634b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,771$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,478$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 8c | 3,378$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 3,361$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,956$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…0995backed Yes | 4c | 908.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 843$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 2c | 671.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…2a52backed Yes | 15c | 670.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 557.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 528.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…d060backed Yes | 2c | 520.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…e21dbacked Yes | 9c | 465.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 10c | 406.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 3c | 348.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 62c | 288.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…e780backed Yes | 8c | 262$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 186.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…4ad3backed Yes | 8c | 125.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?this page
- Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.