TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5235…c04abacked No4c17,744$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.7410324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked No5c15,087$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.981910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No4c8,799$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.553721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x761a…0e8ebacked No1c7,207$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No4c6,003$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.994522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c5,180$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.082847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No4c4,800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9911541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…c5abbacked No1c4,404$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c4,200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.133859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2625…b2f8backed No4c3,903$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.83120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed No10c3,885$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No1c3,708$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed No1c3,114$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No4c2,910$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.382839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed No4c2,696$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.042045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed No4c2,514$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3418…229ebacked No2c2,313$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No9c2,286$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.52425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No3c2,253$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.346728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No1c2,121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.733748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b07…291abacked No20c1,736$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No6c1,734$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.343818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No1c1,511$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7734…ff65backed No12c1,510$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No1c1,510$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.624634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d3…3c57backed No12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed No2c1,088$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x410e…c8ffbacked No2c1,004$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c32…cdcebacked No9c1,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.09156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No5c998.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.956921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…de08backed No11c949.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked No11c910$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f954backed No2c871.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed No2c810.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-83.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf844…7b9cbacked No4c666.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked No2c663.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No11c655.96$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.167014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x618d…9599backed No2c608.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No2c591.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.975928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7329…6768backed No2c570.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked No3c539.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No8c499.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No9c493.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No7c476$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.934934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbda…2687backed No2c447.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No9c444.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7019…61ddbacked No8c376.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No5c348$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3413029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e93…4325backed No11c346.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No6c338$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.257227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d33…05acbacked No8c324.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed No8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No8c283.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.692334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No7c270$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.97825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ae…8e54backed No5c265.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No8c255$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55850%29 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No14c251.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5912531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27c2…5093backed No9c215.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed No8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x766f…3115backed No10c181.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No7c159.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd83…28f1backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc98…f205backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No12c123.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.847119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No9c114$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.266137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No10c111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.118914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b7…5d0abacked No11c109.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+135.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.59958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b9…aae8backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.13625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.12842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes68c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.853033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7418…cd9fbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x108f…56acbacked No65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-57.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1769…8d10backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.65158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.