TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$780,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,169,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $780,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x477a…2d8ebacked No5c50,673$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.094634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8489…208dbacked No3c29,401$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…7a2cbacked No0c24,455$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed No2c11,433$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7909…de2ebacked No5c9,340$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c7,715$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.722847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No1c7,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe335…c801backed No5c6,111$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No6c5,772$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.358219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd9…584ebacked No2c5,100$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No2c4,877$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.613859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No1c4,628$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5512…1facbacked No7c4,552$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked No2c4,547$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No2c4,432$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e4…bd71backed No4c3,293$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed No2c3,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…c5abbacked No3c2,782$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.54110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2a…fd6dbacked No1c2,350$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.32020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…142fbacked No2c2,175$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc40d…0862backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No4c2,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No4c1,931$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.131244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No6c1,854$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No3c1,648$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.793721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056a…e178backed No2c1,600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No1c1,567$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9518914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8529…ed51backed No2c1,520$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No4c1,477$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.892842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1901…b519backed No1c1,398$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c72…9567backed No7c1,352$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283f…e198backed No4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked No5c1,170$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.324845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No6c1,158$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.663818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57d…1538backed No2c1,140$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568a…89b9backed No2c1,076$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c1,057$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe640…c151backed No10c1,024$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick23cpaid+135%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd586…08e9backed No3c1,008$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…a623backed No3c1,001$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed No7c1,001$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347d…f0f3backed No2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6702…726bbacked No1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.148632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7350…a2dfbacked No2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936e…7c42backed No1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No2c999.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed No1c963.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.383435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbda…2687backed No1c844.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No6c842.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.447119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No2c666$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.328615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No2c639.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1c…5452backed No2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3b…7edcbacked No2c605.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…5e22backed No2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba2…1c0dbacked No2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No6c565.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x455d…6a22backed No2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed No5c500.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed No6c499.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed No2c463.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.092416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No5c439.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.033423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No3c414.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4314843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…6311backed No2c410.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed No5c398.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed No7c394.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No4c380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed No7c347.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No4c330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27c2…5093backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed No5c260.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed No18c259.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.28527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5220…4e88backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0ef5backed No7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed No6c204.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133522.9%8 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3762…489fbacked No6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d7…c725backed No7c173.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122020%4 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e3…b990backed No12c169.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe299…ae8bbacked No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes74c60.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.532035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x34ab…9611backed No21c46.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.