Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923c304c640022c4827689acd7dbc465c71114175e32a064365fc55d24190568

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $102,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,658 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x000d…758ebacked No	79c	19,064$15,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,043.41	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes	8c	14,333$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,079.85	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	50c	8,707$4,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,358.56	115	41.7%48 W · 67 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes	4c	5,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No	46c	4,484$2,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,419.77	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked Yes	38c	3,926$1,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,485.12	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes	47c	3,606$1,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700.8	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No	51c	3,443$1,747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,695.29	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No	64c	2,448$1,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$890.41	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes	54c	2,353$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.6	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	3c	2,156$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.53	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes	51c	2,133$1,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,088.79	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-58%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb828…27a9backed No	59c	2,104$1,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.08	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No	72c	2,058$1,475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.87	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	156	46.8%73 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes	55c	1,829$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5871…96e7backed No	49c	1,450$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…1472backed Yes	4c	1,310$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.98	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	54c	1,110$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.4	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked Yes	4c	1,060$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	284	7.7%22 W · 262 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	54c	1,000$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.18	119	50.4%60 W · 59 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes	2c	818.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	52c	674.9$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.06	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d22…d98bbacked Yes	3c	658.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes	15c	649.11$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.37	148	43.2%64 W · 84 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6325…6912backed No	52c	642$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.32	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	605.17$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18d2…46a1backed Yes	4c	600$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	2c	577$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	189	14.3%27 W · 162 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	61c	560.43$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.18	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa773…8232backed Yes	4c	554.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes	45c	516$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.38	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…46d6backed Yes	56c	500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…82e2backed Yes	2c	422.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…733cbacked Yes	5c	395.68$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd764…cdd7backed Yes	50c	392$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7007…00aabacked Yes	5c	368.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed Yes	3c	339.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes	48c	300$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.16	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	36c	265.39$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.8	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x969c…314cbacked Yes	4c	260$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No	59c	250$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.5	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No	45c	210$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.4	286	36.7%105 W · 181 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed Yes	49c	205.08$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.47	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	50c	180$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.76	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	56c	168$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.08	130	29.2%38 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed No	55c	142.55$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.6	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No	44c	135.56$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.56	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No	45c	126$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.3	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No	52c	115.38$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.38	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed No	55c	109.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2625…b2f8backed Yes	53c	107.68$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.06	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed No	62c	106$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.78	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No	50c	101$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.5	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b7…2f70backed No	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	52c	98.64$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.35	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No	44c	97.45$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.47	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked Yes	52c	91.57$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7297…008dbacked Yes	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc96…71b6backed Yes	52c	57.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked No	52c	57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.36	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…4638backed No	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3758…7e20backed No	45c	28.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No	66c	28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.57	170	21.2%36 W · 134 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd934…b664backed No	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No	44c	26.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.6	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed No	50c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+404%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddf7…8250backed No	42c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d1…b6e7backed No	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b8…d19dbacked No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?this page
Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Tom Brady attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No won
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event