TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c16…df3abacked No4c11,144$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.998640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c11,008$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.513859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No17c10,596$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.634634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked No0c9,883$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2130%0 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No1c4,932$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.156041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked No3c4,632$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x739e…00fcbacked No1c4,400$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed No40c3,977$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.952055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes29c3,732$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.043129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes49c3,535$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.6918033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes78c3,383$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.481435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes38c3,366$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.2716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed No39c3,336$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.423050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed No65c3,082$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes79c3,046$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No61c2,622$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.3911541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed No69c2,593$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9825…f8e8backed Yes23c2,537$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.97875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c51…f8febacked No3c2,300$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed No1c2,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9e…8ab7backed No0c2,170$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed No66c2,116$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.251566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes79c2,104$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.368737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6325…6912backed No21c2,046$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.68837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed No39c1,901$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a7…f445backed No28c1,892$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No65c1,788$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.914438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No77c1,650$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.910056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Yes59c1,640$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.35850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes11c1,614$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.598219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5352…659abacked No38c1,580$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3cd…3537backed Yes35c1,529$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.2450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes26c1,472$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.7617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes23c1,421$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.0313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No47c1,406$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.362313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb8…4e12backed No1c1,374$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+45.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No7c1,372$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No79c1,356$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.682927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed No1c1,350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa842…08e5backed Yes37c1,336$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.03742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes78c1,293$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.872835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50da…0b82backed No23c1,232$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.99922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No1c1,229$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1614940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0450…e0ddbacked No4c1,189$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes47c1,167$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.195740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf93…7a5fbacked Yes44c1,138$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.291040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe97…3af6backed Yes41c1,132$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No62c1,091$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.342650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac4…1c0fbacked No60c1,045$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No65c1,025$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.769142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No78c976.18$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.452250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes31c898.55$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.6517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No2c873.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4714742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8061…09a3backed No35c871.34$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.08650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes34c813.46$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.396838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes38c799.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.641353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd58d…0fe5backed No70c783.99$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+122.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes74c773.77$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.111347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e9c…0669backed No7c768.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.041637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No71c750.58$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.453033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No8c742.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.324314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No74c699.97$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c695.91$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.2199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x750f…8c52backed No2c693.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c7e…80c2backed No14c689.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes50c666$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3336033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes32c629.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.031435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd52…8f01backed No70c601$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes17c597$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.51520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes15c580.56$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.42020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…c96dbacked No19c579.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes35c567.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.872751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No65c550$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.075137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ab…2ce6backed No4c531.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No59c525$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.657447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe052…38f3backed Yes29c505.35$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes15c501$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.853751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3206728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…fd1dbacked No20c490$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5023…3f6abacked Yes40c474$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29bc…b4c3backed Yes38c468.54$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…af2ebacked Yes33c454.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6a…0b81backed No67c454.43$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-62.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No67c450$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x650d…c383backed Yes47c424.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.482334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb896…7c20backed No36c421.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ea…fa11backed Yes36c420.52$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.52933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x728e…8a74backed Yes24c418.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+109.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1763432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No65c397.99$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2211940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked No72c371.41$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.371338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes32c370.03$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.173743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3019…1018backed No24c365.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes11c360.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.193545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No20c360$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.755341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked No67c355.97$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.571741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980f…5b55backed Yes26c355$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes4c349.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.892035%7 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+818.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.