TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01f7…02df

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST2035%7 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+818.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.57
Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100.03
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+2,400%+$335.89
Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100.6
Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$100.03
Will Trump nominate Bryan Slater for Labor Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100.03
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$45.02
Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+9,900%+$2,581.36
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$74.26
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Commerce Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$399.98
Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+900%+$900
Will Trump appoint Nicole Shanahan for White House Press Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$20.35
Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+1,150%+$738.15
Will Trump nominate Tom Cotton for Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$14.02
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+1,366.6%+$1,519.64
Will Trump nominate another candidate for Secretary of Veterans Affairs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$200.03
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Secretary of State?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+1,900%+$380.59
Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$188.78
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$1,000
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+45.4%+$453.56
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+72.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$35.63
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$800
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$803Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+181.5%+$1,457.19
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,503.97
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$440
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,985Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$583.05
Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.68
Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$670
Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+278.9%+$442.65
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$548
Will the Liberal Party win by 50–74 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Will the Liberals win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$360
Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$333
Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$820Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$820
Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$329.6
Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,571Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+132.7%+$2,085.18
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+663.4%+$79.95
Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$36.49
X banned in Brazil by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT+900%+$1,842.23
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2024, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+119.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2024, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Fritz vs. Tiafoebacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$33
US Open: Sabalenka vs. Navarrobacked Navarro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$420
US Open: Sinner vs. Medvedevbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$200.99
US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegulabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT+102.7%+$1,520
All 4 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick10cpaid+619.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+1,566.7%+$195.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rihanna be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$18.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.