World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cc4c850066f540ad0dd37e62290079639959d9cccce7db6d024f6d608742f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 4,235$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.67 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,950$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 9c | 2,833$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,713$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.62 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…8db2backed Yes | 13c | 2,442$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 73c | 1,628$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.95 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,499$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 73c | 1,231$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.31 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 11c | 1,206$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 23c | 785.56$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 37c | 756.88$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 702.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8620…087ebacked Yes | 9c | 634.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 9c | 576.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 9c | 551.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 14c | 546.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 532.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…5481backed Yes | 9c | 500.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 10c | 489.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 398.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 10c | 379$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…a140backed Yes | 16c | 332.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 331.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…6e40backed Yes | 10c | 308.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…2dacbacked Yes | 9c | 289.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 30c | 257.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…5652backed Yes | 32c | 252.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…668ebacked Yes | 8c | 243.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 10c | 238.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…1ebabacked Yes | 11c | 217.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 216$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 39c | 194.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…7102backed Yes | 11c | 176.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bc…460dbacked Yes | 12c | 163.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…4351backed Yes | 23c | 147.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 137.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…cb7ebacked Yes | 32c | 110.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa773…3ee3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 33c | 85.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…600dbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.