World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1e95716ced25cf3fb868606fc17ae5e258011a166a9cc39682ac8c3062b347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 4,965$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.41 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 3,327$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.08 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 17c | 3,026$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.4 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,900$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 11c | 1,276$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 20c | 1,111$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 80c | 936.85$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 15c | 816$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 16c | 808.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 18c | 574$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 14c | 566.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 479$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 475.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 435.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 21c | 406.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 15c | 403.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…2203backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 20c | 394.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 22c | 300.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 222.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 20c | 176.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 150.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…eecabacked Yes | 20c | 127.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…b402backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…045abacked Yes | 20c | 82.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 18c | 73.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 55.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.