World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf886120c8bf1e9fcc75ce7de84312c17c4d185423de8d2d1987b1c96f797e595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 8,066$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.42 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 5c | 5,346$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 5c | 3,364$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 4c | 1,433$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 6c | 1,330$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,287$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 4c | 1,002$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 6c | 999$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 664.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 6c | 627$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 540$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 5c | 485$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 333.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…5c0cbacked Yes | 5c | 246.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +182%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 230.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 206$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.