World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f03165be56ead480596a8dd1d8dd46c7b3a403fcd9dfd33e4fa91227ce0ed57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,930$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 3c | 3,759$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ceb2backed Yes | 2c | 2,896$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…e203backed Yes | 5c | 2,701$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541f…5d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,255$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 3c | 1,878$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…36c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…2cb6backed Yes | 3c | 764.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 5c | 742.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…d3dcbacked Yes | 4c | 701.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 635.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 505.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 437.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 3c | 341.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.