World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429e8a18f7d735891d10b4c3d5fb69a9b8b4df21e28005ce0b57518637bb042c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ace…8db2backed Yes | 57c | 3,739$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 3,277$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.2 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,934$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.78 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,806$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.99 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 17c | 1,634$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 39c | 1,324$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.77 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,304$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.45 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 1,216$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.53 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,071$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,045$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.19 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 43c | 990$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.11 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 39c | 953.27$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.27 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 11c | 946.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.6 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 10c | 752$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed Yes | 42c | 704.02$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 26c | 601.38$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 75c | 579.71$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.31 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 76c | 569.67$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 9c | 543.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.48 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 10c | 486.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.67 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 11c | 483.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.86 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 13c | 450$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 417.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.2 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 27c | 412$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…ae75backed Yes | 12c | 388.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +250.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 10c | 360$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…a140backed Yes | 15c | 355.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 335.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…5481backed Yes | 15c | 300.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 10c | 288$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.08 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 11c | 257.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…2dacbacked Yes | 10c | 241.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 35c | 236.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 235.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…6e40backed Yes | 18c | 222.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…b51bbacked Yes | 17c | 207.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 12c | 196.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 178.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 177.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…a166backed Yes | 14c | 144.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 138.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed Yes | 19c | 133.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…fc15backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 11c | 119.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 64c | 117$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed No | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 79c | 112$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 10c | 103.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…2576backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…7102backed Yes | 11c | 97.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 78c | 37.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.