World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe503d2ca11ec7c46b5cfbf29a91d5eed17eef79cb866432633d163b285ebc0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed No | 61c | 54,421$33,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,224.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…31f1backed Yes | 39c | 54,421$21,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,224.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 39c | 15,452$5,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,981.83 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 31c | 10,312$3,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 51c | 8,776$4,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471.15 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 59c | 6,858$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.19 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 58c | 6,015$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.9 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 5,887$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.34 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 63c | 4,826$3,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.97 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 63c | 4,565$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.79 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,135$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.75 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 48c | 2,747$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.96 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 54c | 2,114$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.21 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,925$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.41 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,916$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 3c | 1,331$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed No | 64c | 1,297$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 57c | 1,080$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.68 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 1,073$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.66 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 66c | 1,065$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.38 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 38c | 989.57$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.45 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 37c | 951.79$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 61c | 940$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.41 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 937.21$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…0df1backed Yes | 41c | 900$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…6786backed No | 59c | 900$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 62c | 885$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 849$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.03 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 40c | 760.92$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 754.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 56c | 733.83$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…4351backed Yes | 38c | 700$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…49f2backed Yes | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 57c | 620$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 48c | 499$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 458$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.11 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 75c | 450.38$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 425$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 55c | 420$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 50c | 417.03$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 63c | 396.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 49c | 384$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.05 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 348.41$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…970bbacked No | 65c | 301.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 33c | 280.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed No | 64c | 252.75$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 65c | 250.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 66c | 248.81$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 54c | 235.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 36c | 202$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 58c | 174.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked No | 50c | 160$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 28c | 154.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…a140backed Yes | 39c | 137.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 128.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…38f3backed Yes | 46c | 114.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…eb0fbacked No | 56c | 110.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…b567backed No | 56c | 108.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 59c | 104.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2980…0302backed Yes | 44c | 104.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…06b0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 24c | 88.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 57c | 88.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 51c | 82.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…6e40backed Yes | 54c | 81.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…045abacked Yes | 42c | 80.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…2dacbacked Yes | 36c | 68.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 63c | 67.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 56.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 72c | 49.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…2576backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…a122backed Yes | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked No | 48c | 37.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 33.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservatives win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will the Conservatives win between 100-119 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will the Conservatives win between 150-159 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.