TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2027…6d60

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
462
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST9248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 92 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,624Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+32.3%+$1,495.78
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,567Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,567.02
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,100
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.9
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$185.58
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+25.7%+$221.31
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,047Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+187.6%+$1,964.8
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,848Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$1,078.8
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,827Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,827.43
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$673.61
Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.64
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$92
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,682Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+45.6%+$1,677.87
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.23
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,231Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,230.58
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.99
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.84
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$1,868.69
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+65.4%+$324.38
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$570
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.64
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$248.43
Showing 25 of 92 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT7834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$402.54
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,409Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,409.2
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$99.14
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$716Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$716.18
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$535.25
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,776Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+89%+$1,580.24
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.97
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.56
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 17-18m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,356Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$1,735.11
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.41
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$2,156.44
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,889.58
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11,129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$3,514.44
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$825.08
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,116.36
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+150%+$43.51
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$8,656Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,655.57
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.41
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Dan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,147.68
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,570.26
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$585.33
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$6,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,025.24
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$6,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,589.8
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,445Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+52.6%+$1,286.01
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT5747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,510Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+99.4%+$3,490
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+106.5%+$1,220.69
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$850
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$403.39
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$156.19
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+101.3%+$151
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+124.2%+$552.55
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+91.4%+$319.45
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+135.7%+$1,697.69
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+145.7%+$958.75
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.63
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$669Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$669.24
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+126.1%+$519.24
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$710Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$289.99
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25.2%+$41.27
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,904.35
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10,778Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10,777.79
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,944Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$670.7
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$268.1
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$666.1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.8%+$32.3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6.56
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$596.25
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST4936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.33
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$6,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$6,189.86
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$599.91
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,728Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+225.2%+$3,890.43
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,493Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,493.15
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.25
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$65.24
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,964.56
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+50.1%+$266.54
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+51.5%+$143.22
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$646Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$646.27
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$340.96
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+813.4%+$1,246.19
Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$109.09
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.79
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$835Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$834.63
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$981Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$980.82
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$697.36
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.51
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,067.25
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$6,983Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,983.34
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$604.95
Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.25
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+58.6%+$201.08
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT3528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$953Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$952.62
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$963Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$963.23
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.27
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.17
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.87
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+69.8%+$232.93
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+239%+$400.5
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$61.5
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$99.9
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$23.24
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$107.8
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+47.3%+$227.98
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+139.2%+$27.19
Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$95.96
Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$198.43
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$920.1
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,384Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+74.5%+$1,031.69
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$28.54
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+170.3%+$315
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.1
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.82
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$632.53
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+150%+$326.87
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,528Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,527.97
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+109%+$307.11
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,346Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+67%+$901.98
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$55.34
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$448.16
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$321.58
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$26.04
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$464.36
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$225
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$736.07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,789Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,788.97
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$550.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$380
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$102.9
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12,870Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$4,408.54
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.5%+$150.5
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.6
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$5,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,048.11
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,104.63
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$714.34
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$35.1
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$858Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+183.7%+$1,576.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+36.3%+$305.48
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.47
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+37%+$264.42
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+77.4%+$405.03
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$177.64
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$233
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$155.67
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$361.07
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.91
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$342.38
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$274.64
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+25.8%+$205.2
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+108.3%+$520
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$137.91
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$76
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+29.3%+$173.2
Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$17.2
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,720Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$1,280
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$718.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$310
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,621.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$868Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+73.7%+$639.57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,400
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,331.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$579Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$578.55
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,779Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+27%+$749.02
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+987%+$1,362
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$215.59
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.38
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$355.99
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,331Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,330.56
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+50%+$169.76
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$240
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$165
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+42.9%+$34.5
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$64.2
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,828Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+31.3%+$572
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$253.87
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$49.75
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,058.34
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+232.4%+$146.83
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$81
Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+405.7%+$393.14
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$131.99
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$84
Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$11.99
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+96.1%+$74.99
All 16 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+88.7%+$470
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,813Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+66.9%+$1,213.72
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,319.99
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,427Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+182.6%+$2,605.35
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$169.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$476.08
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,349Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+270%+$3,641.74
Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$675.35
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$125.13
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$2,109.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.81
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Nets vs. Lakersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$161.55
All 4 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 4, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liberty vs Wingsbacked Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$266.84
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$997Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$996.88
Wings vs Feverbacked Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+53.3%+$209.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$606Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+40.8%+$247.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,055
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.