Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bdd8efa095a13b0a65541da16ee00fc51e531ff11e4c97d693b28783c6c3e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $478,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 54c | 20,155$10,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,891.38 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 24c | 18,939$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,480.27 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 44c | 11,810$5,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.32 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 14c | 11,500$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 16c | 11,145$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.03 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…908fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 67c | 9,391$6,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,298.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 31c | 9,238$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,377.17 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 48c | 8,757$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224.31 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 24c | 8,222$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 58c | 8,219$4,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,412.57 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 23c | 7,555$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.07 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 18c | 7,464$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 15c | 7,362$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.17 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 41c | 7,087$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.28 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 62c | 7,000$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…f174backed Yes | 11c | 6,436$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 37c | 5,774$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.32 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 71c | 5,293$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.66 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 56c | 4,938$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.7 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…9f52backed Yes | 16c | 4,737$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 17c | 4,717$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.33 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 4,582$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.49 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 26c | 4,498$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.46 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 4,413$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.53 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 50c | 4,053$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.62 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 21c | 3,362$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 19c | 3,163$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 51c | 3,109$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.17 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 14c | 3,050$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 43c | 2,791$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 78c | 2,764$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.34 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 35c | 2,702$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.42 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 73c | 2,689$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.07 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 76c | 2,667$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.67 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 65c | 2,666$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.55 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 27c | 2,611$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.07 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 16c | 2,593$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.1 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 2,486$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 61c | 2,423$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.16 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,381$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 12c | 2,354$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 22c | 2,275$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.68 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,197$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.71 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 71c | 2,145$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.52 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 14c | 2,143$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.53 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 19c | 2,105$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.33 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 25c | 2,092$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.54 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 17c | 2,020$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.01 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,003$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.97 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed No | 48c | 1,868$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,851$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 1,748$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 23c | 1,719$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 75c | 1,666$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.16 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.35 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 62c | 1,527$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.65 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,432$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.04 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 26c | 1,402$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 77c | 1,331$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 77c | 1,305$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,300$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 15c | 1,266$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 19c | 1,264$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 22c | 1,249$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,234$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.65 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,137$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 12c | 1,126$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 16c | 1,124$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 68c | 1,100$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.61 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,074$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 13c | 1,030$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,025$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 32c | 979.15$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.53 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 66c | 948.69$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.34 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 920.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 12c | 887.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…a7d4backed Yes | 78c | 876.56$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 13c | 869.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 23c | 862.67$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.26 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…0b88backed Yes | 20c | 859.51$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 19c | 857.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.32 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 22c | 853.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…07f9backed Yes | 26c | 848.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 55c | 816.16$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.67 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 809.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 15c | 805.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 60c | 801$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 50c | 709.05$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.92 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 34c | 695.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.23 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 45c | 661.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 10c | 658.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 48c | 637.74$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.