Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x573c5be7fac47d432f3f0b415e4bca7085193448b8304fbe7836e9439f5378cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $405,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 37,641$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.88 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 11c | 14,973$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.89 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8949…5e21backed Yes | 0c | 14,784$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,850$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,948$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 11c | 8,539$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.79 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,547$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.52 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,672$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 0c | 4,438$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,168$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.64 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 11c | 3,749$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.18 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,674$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…70dabacked Yes | 1c | 3,587$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…755dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,347$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,652$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 14c | 2,479$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.47 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,390$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,009$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 11c | 1,950$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,938$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 16c | 1,861$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 12c | 1,820$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.71 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 12c | 1,763$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 5c | 1,649$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,647$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…9f52backed Yes | 12c | 1,622$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,607$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 1,484$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 5c | 1,479$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,347$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,327$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,310$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…b9d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,295$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,223$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 1,206$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 8c | 1,198$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 6c | 1,168$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 7c | 1,129$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,075$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 1,015$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 977.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 934.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 10c | 893.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 859.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f67…e028backed Yes | 6c | 850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 752.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 722.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…d6a2backed Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 666.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…1739backed Yes | 2c | 618.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 545$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…35f2backed Yes | 10c | 515.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 7c | 506.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e11…e3ddbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 12c | 485.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 4c | 467.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 3c | 438$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 9c | 434$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 6c | 431$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44af…129fbacked Yes | 14c | 420.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…fa66backed Yes | 3c | 416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…b479backed Yes | 10c | 413.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 10c | 397.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…5d6dbacked Yes | 13c | 394.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…ecabbacked Yes | 3c | 352$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…06a6backed Yes | 12c | 341.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…af88backed Yes | 11c | 333.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 5c | 330.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 8c | 303.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 10c | 302.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 292$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 272.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 262.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 216.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…a081backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 207.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.