Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac07a56bec85c42537202ac21f8af17eb6093c4ce848190dd05a6d2c6218d472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $464,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa404…f174backed Yes | 5c | 25,590$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2e03backed Yes | 10c | 9,751$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 4c | 9,251$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.06 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,796$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 8,232$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.19 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 7,516$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.82 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 6,738$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 1c | 6,209$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 6,158$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.08 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 5,712$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.62 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 5,642$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 5c | 5,459$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,175$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 7c | 5,058$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.62 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 1c | 5,024$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,785$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 6c | 4,543$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.07 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 4,538$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…8833backed Yes | 2c | 4,535$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,211$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 11c | 3,920$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.55 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,453$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 3,296$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 6c | 3,199$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Yes | 1c | 3,086$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…6afabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…52a6backed Yes | 7c | 2,850$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,794$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…7d66backed Yes | 2c | 2,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 2,316$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 2,142$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 10c | 2,040$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 5c | 2,003$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…c92cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,796$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 7c | 1,711$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 13c | 1,594$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 10c | 1,534$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…555cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,366$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…5ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,326$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec8…0a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,317$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee85…7777backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2169…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 10c | 1,180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 4c | 1,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,096$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…5d6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,094$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,087$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,084$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 9c | 1,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,060$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…35f2backed Yes | 8c | 1,008$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 2c | 996.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f5…01e5backed Yes | 12c | 986.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 5c | 966.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 11c | 909.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 12c | 883.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 13c | 850.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…1972backed Yes | 1c | 843.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 833$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…711fbacked Yes | 12c | 829.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 823.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 11c | 800.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 8c | 779$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 4c | 749.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb02…c534backed Yes | 3c | 727.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 12c | 708.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 3c | 680.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…5a9ebacked Yes | 1c | 680$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e44…0f50backed Yes | 4c | 628.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…2518backed Yes | 3c | 627.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 3c | 625.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf378…ccdebacked Yes | 3c | 614.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 11c | 606.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 7c | 599.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.