Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68595002337cb0220590524ffb2fa7dd1284860da34b50809eab1ed405f43c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,749$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 3c | 10,266$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.82 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 10,002$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,997$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,089$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 5,650$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…c75abacked Yes | 0c | 3,956$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 3c | 3,551$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 3c | 3,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 1c | 3,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 3c | 2,909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 2c | 2,493$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 6c | 2,470$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 3c | 2,222$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,888$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…52a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…a296backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…2347backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 3c | 764.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…cd34backed Yes | 2c | 648$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 611.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 2c | 599.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 544$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 3c | 405.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7d56backed Yes | 3c | 349$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 3c | 346.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.