Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf86bddaa19b04201cb979ce689d26d850b2a1c10b2c5e4226c6a6dcca55d4a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $697,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $434,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $697,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 22,210$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.23 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 18c | 15,483$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.86 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 23c | 14,768$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,459.32 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 35c | 14,725$5,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,094.5 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 18c | 13,270$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.93 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 12,958$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.4 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…5189backed Yes | 20c | 10,588$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 9,762$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.6 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes | 14c | 8,765$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 8,410$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,282$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.01 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 17c | 7,520$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.23 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 15c | 7,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 6,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 6,481$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.01 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 13c | 6,344$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.95 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 5,918$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.95 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 5c | 5,837$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,652$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.28 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…2d44backed Yes | 12c | 5,525$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.23 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 2c | 4,531$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed Yes | 17c | 4,363$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 7c | 4,253$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.27 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,221$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 4,134$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 10c | 4,131$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 19c | 3,976$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,892$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.35 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 3,812$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.22 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 15c | 3,509$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.53 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 19c | 3,144$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.71 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 17c | 3,127$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.42 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,090$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 8c | 3,028$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 3,016$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.6 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,967$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.56 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,946$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 34c | 2,462$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.88 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 24c | 2,420$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 44c | 2,266$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 21c | 2,170$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.09 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…554fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,079$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 20c | 2,052$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.49 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,042$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.07 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…159bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 15c | 1,985$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 2c | 1,982$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 3c | 1,955$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,926$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.46 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 21c | 1,905$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 16c | 1,890$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.23 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 14c | 1,802$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 66c | 1,734$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.86 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 1,733$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.86 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 15c | 1,723$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.86 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,703$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,702$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.73 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 11c | 1,694$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 12c | 1,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,573$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,562$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 1,516$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,502$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.04 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…52f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,497$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 10c | 1,493$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 12c | 1,426$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 15c | 1,410$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 1,400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…0243backed Yes | 16c | 1,400$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,388$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 1,360$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 1,305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 15c | 1,298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,292$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…3660backed Yes | 12c | 1,291$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,281$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 23c | 1,136$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 21c | 1,068$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 22c | 1,068$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…25b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,054$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 5c | 1,044$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…0b88backed Yes | 17c | 1,043$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 18c | 1,034$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…8b26backed Yes | 11c | 1,033$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 49c | 1,023$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 18c | 1,016$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 11c | 1,009$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed Yes | 48c | 1,002$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,002$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…f174backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 8c | 999.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 59c | 998.81$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.74 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 20c | 987.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.