TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf1e0…0f73

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
383
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2025, EDT26112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 261 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.1
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.04
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.66
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.71
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.69
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.7
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.54
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$235.95
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.9
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.06
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$454.29
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,031.94
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$450.7
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$649.47
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,114.71
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$226.95
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$165.02
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,159.13
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$400.21
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$704.3
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$413.28
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.1
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.56
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.69
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$417.83
Showing 25 of 261 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT3735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.4
Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+99%+$91.83
Trump Travel Ban Before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.06
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.06
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+203%+$36.85
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+36%+$310.09
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$23.65
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$53.24
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$737Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+195%+$1,437.03
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$545.31
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.97
Will $Trump FDV be $25-30b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$440.42
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$76.5
Will $Trump FDV be $30-35b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$43.43
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$126.65
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$418.42
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$117.17
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$598.54
Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$138.92
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+25.4%+$160.86
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$218.21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$85.61
Will $TRUMP hit $50B FDV by noon on inauguration day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,853Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+126.3%+$3,603.8
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$32
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$412.92
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$469Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$468.77
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$666.26
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$77.55
U.S. military action against Iran before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$552.59
Israel declares war on Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$70
Netanyahu out by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$22
No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$642Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+234.2%+$1,503.71
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+844.7%+$3,498.55
Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.85
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$112.7
Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$302.97
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$824.59
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$206.56
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$289.21
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$55.03
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,395Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,395.02
Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$341.7
Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$488.2
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$450.62
Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$269.65
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,171Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+28%+$327.56
Another Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.38
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,190.26
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2025, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$117.78
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,623Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$2,623.36
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$781Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$781
Will $TRUMP memecoin creator sell by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$99.31
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+84%+$2,844.37
Will $TRUMP hit $10B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+31.5%+$213.52
Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$87.18
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$270.33
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$44.17
Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$67.93
Will Dogecoin reach $0.90 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$42.02
Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$41.46
Will Dogecoin reach $0.80 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$148
Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$624Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$624.07
Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+132.6%+$152.01
Trump post about a memecoin before election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$28
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,429Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+59.2%+$846.6
Swell airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+612.6%+$267.36
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$39.46
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 20% and 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$26.77
Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$51.11
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$134.01
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.62
Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$137.1
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 19% and 22% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$84.23
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$53.28
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$190.76
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$221.83
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$516.54
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$220.65
Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$334.39
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$403.48
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$510.08
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,945Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,945
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$11.56
Will Cori Bush win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$85.68
All 18 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+227.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+337.8%+$43.98
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+116.5%+$30.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$363.1
Will Trump sell shares of DJT before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$53.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Fritz vs. Tiafoebacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$150.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Beverly Hills by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$33.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.