Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Cori Bush win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a30c4fad4296346d8c768700b09d1682209a0279d3cf73d802f299e83a6e4dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 20c | 18,996$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 3c | 12,481$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked No | 72c | 9,863$7,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,773.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 21c | 9,854$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 80c | 3,493$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.11 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 80c | 3,450$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556f…9263backed Yes | 7c | 1,565$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a694backed Yes | 4c | 1,413$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 76c | 1,222$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,150$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed No | 75c | 1,000$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…1499backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…ca27backed Yes | 6c | 827.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 8c | 680$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 18c | 476$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 80c | 435.36$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 40c | 407.63$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 72c | 317.95$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…f531backed Yes | 25c | 205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 29c | 172$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…ada5backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…ff83backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…79c0backed Yes | 19c | 60.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cori Bush win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?this page
- Will Wesley Bell win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.