Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bfcbcfe5007d6ff0653844d3ded94e279289c6a1645b8a2ffe543b50affc415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 20c | 6,767$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 13c | 5,587$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.19 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 4c | 4,604$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 1c | 2,455$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 78c | 2,389$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.64 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 20c | 1,050$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…cf61backed Yes | 72c | 1,042$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…1499backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 2c | 991.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 55c | 677.23$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Yes | 74c | 406.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed No | 5c | 323.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 38c | 298.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 44c | 277.43$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…a659backed Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed No | 30c | 144.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 63c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…d946backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeae…56fcbacked Yes | 75c | 72.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…b6b2backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…345fbacked Yes | 69c | 55.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…f82ebacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079d…26b9backed Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…8e5cbacked Yes | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4c…65febacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…f531backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wesley Bell win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?this page
- Will Cori Bush win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.