TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x063b…0711

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
30
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,927Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+121.4%+$3,553.37
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$207.02
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Simion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70,417Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$20,061.13
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$1,750
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$8,740Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,740
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,920Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$1,079.99
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.01
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.72
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$6,292Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+194.4%+$12,229.66
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$291
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$794Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+536.2%+$4,257.92
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$241.79
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,713Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,712.79
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,205.73
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26,954Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+40.5%+$10,926.59
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$6,017Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+33%+$1,983
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$175,835Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+48.4%+$85,165.44
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$69
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,598Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$1,598.08
Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,031Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,031
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$700.67
Will Wesley Bell win the MO-1 Democratic House Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.55
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2024, EST+132.4%+$677.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,675Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,675
Trump negative approval before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+56.2%+$359.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+568.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+568.7%+$435
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$375
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$455.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$124
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.