World Politics · resolved market
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ad0785aa31cdac072cc966a80e255fedcfb15a323d71e605464b28f565d55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $863,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $883,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $863,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 997 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 21c | 46,393$9,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,510.84 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 4c | 17,846$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 69c | 14,465$9,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 76c | 13,923$10,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.53 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…9285backed No | 4c | 13,649$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 13,291$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.82 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 11,989$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.34 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…c075backed No | 4c | 11,984$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked No | 2c | 10,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 5c | 10,000$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.05 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…c328backed No | 3c | 10,000$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 69c | 9,792$6,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 19c | 9,073$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.9 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 5c | 8,905$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.12 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 6c | 7,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…d9c8backed No | 5c | 7,000$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 8c | 6,332$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.39 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 79c | 6,277$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.37 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 63c | 5,574$3,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed No | 40c | 5,515$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed No | 23c | 5,466$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed Yes | 73c | 5,033$3,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 4,860$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.23 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…b4e3backed Yes | 74c | 4,801$3,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 69c | 4,229$2,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 2c | 4,215$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 36c | 3,796$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf299…5e83backed No | 5c | 3,745$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 3,372$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.41 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 3c | 3,362$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 72c | 3,234$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.42 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…bb10backed Yes | 67c | 3,142$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 27c | 2,968$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.67 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 70c | 2,933$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.91 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 11c | 2,845$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.34 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…7d11backed No | 33c | 2,465$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…c7ccbacked No | 4c | 2,314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf159…b9f4backed No | 4c | 2,221$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 2,118$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.66 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 80c | 2,086$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.11 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…ed38backed Yes | 55c | 1,979$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 72c | 1,975$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.75 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 56c | 1,920$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,872$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…41b1backed No | 2c | 1,763$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515d…5aefbacked No | 3c | 1,613$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 29c | 1,487$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.37 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 10c | 1,377$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 1,329$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 41c | 1,251$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 11c | 1,200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…e411backed Yes | 51c | 1,188$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 77c | 1,167$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 57c | 1,137$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…4731backed Yes | 73c | 1,099$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,073$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 3c | 984.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 3c | 972.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed Yes | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…5446backed No | 3c | 879.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 16c | 838.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Yes | 49c | 819.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…53c6backed No | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed No | 3c | 769.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 15c | 750.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 65c | 747.07$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…822ebacked No | 4c | 745.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…4f4cbacked No | 7c | 711.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 50c | 699.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe778…d11dbacked Yes | 72c | 694.85$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 44c | 684$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8891backed Yes | 51c | 670.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 43c | 654.49$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 18c | 612.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 21c | 610.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…3e74backed No | 4c | 609.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…4638backed Yes | 53c | 605.38$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…bebabacked No | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…ed00backed No | 15c | 589$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…0dfbbacked Yes | 67c | 580.97$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +206.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 568.1$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 3c | 529.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…d686backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…6f13backed No | 55c | 491.04$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 488.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…1ef6backed Yes | 70c | 484.6$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…d092backed No | 62c | 483.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 74c | 471.21$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…46c4backed No | 17c | 455.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 26c | 452.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x492e…4cdabacked No | 16c | 450.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…f241backed Yes | 58c | 438.67$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…6e06backed No | 17c | 430.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…d061backed No | 17c | 415.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…463fbacked No | 17c | 413.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 5c | 411.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…8b2cbacked No | 17c | 404.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?this page
- Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.