World Politics · resolved market
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72721c73f9637d2eb1b62e4806976b3f520bd06c9323d2e37f71b3c32dd3ad42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd782…9285backed Yes | 6c | 64,659$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…bbf5backed Yes | 6c | 51,960$3,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked Yes | 7c | 15,956$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 30c | 12,995$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.22 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 10,994$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.76 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 10c | 10,171$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.1 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 8,587$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked No | 70c | 7,326$5,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.67 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 35c | 6,483$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 25c | 5,200$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 34c | 4,979$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 4,597$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 29c | 4,597$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…5312backed No | 64c | 4,552$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed No | 74c | 4,458$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 77c | 4,456$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 2c | 4,028$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…5bd8backed Yes | 4c | 3,537$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,839$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 2,010$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 28c | 1,981$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.73 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 75c | 1,867$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.16 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…ed38backed No | 66c | 1,758$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 29c | 1,723$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 72c | 1,708$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,706$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 24c | 1,667$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.54 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 1c | 1,664$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,611$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,570$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 1,553$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 35c | 1,475$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.69 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,451$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 28c | 1,414$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.16 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 37c | 1,368$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 5c | 1,319$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…822ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,177$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked No | 68c | 1,111$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 2c | 1,103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 20c | 1,085$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed No | 64c | 1,079$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 63c | 1,021$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.91 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,013$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…20cebacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 5c | 998.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 26c | 925.1$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 3c | 877.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 2c | 799.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…f14ebacked Yes | 5c | 799.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 3c | 787.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 744$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…8adfbacked Yes | 28c | 731.27$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…c039backed Yes | 3c | 715.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +104%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd40f…c4e0backed Yes | 4c | 697.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…cc49backed Yes | 34c | 695.83$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…9b11backed Yes | 4c | 659.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…8cf9backed Yes | 3c | 647.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…3e74backed Yes | 4c | 627$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728e…8a74backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked No | 65c | 599.38$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…7336backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…008dbacked Yes | 34c | 481.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…1bfabacked Yes | 3c | 463.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 411.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 402.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…13b2backed No | 74c | 402.46$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +262.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 3c | 391.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24febacked Yes | 17c | 380.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…e411backed Yes | 36c | 376.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked No | 66c | 303.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 37c | 297$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…d4ccbacked Yes | 37c | 294.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…6069backed Yes | 36c | 285.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f8…c8a2backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 14c | 267.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.12 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 63c | 253.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 250.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…8a38backed No | 77c | 220.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4810…65fbbacked Yes | 22c | 205$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 182.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…7b24backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc57…64b3backed Yes | 33c | 159.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 25c | 154.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…42e5backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…afebbacked Yes | 38c | 150.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…6983backed Yes | 34c | 147$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 144.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…6c85backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed No | 64c | 126.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…46a2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?this page
- Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Yes won
- Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.