TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$387,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$327,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd782…9285backed Yes6c64,659$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa12b…bbf5backed Yes6c51,960$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf861…681fbacked Yes7c15,956$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.11825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes30c12,995$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.2214330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c10,994$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.765132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes10c10,171$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.112630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c8,587$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.820614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No70c7,326$5,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.672729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes35c6,483$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2506322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed Yes25c5,200$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.481526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063b…0711backed Yes34c4,979$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes3c4,597$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.42382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-90.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes29c4,597$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.662030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9af5…5312backed No64c4,552$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c71…3584backed No74c4,458$3,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No77c4,456$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.893050%15 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes2c4,028$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.332035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c2…5bd8backed Yes4c3,537$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,839$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.551,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7238…cbc1backed Yes5c2,010$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.997650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes28c1,981$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.7327828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No75c1,867$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.168035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9483…ed38backed No66c1,758$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes29c1,723$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No72c1,708$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.432548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes4c1,706$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.465131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes24c1,667$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.546920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes1c1,664$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes2c1,611$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.07263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes2c1,600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.234726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes2c1,570$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes18c1,553$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.592842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes35c1,475$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.6916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,451$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.251,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes28c1,414$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.163429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77c…a67abacked Yes37c1,368$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes5c1,319$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa39…822ebacked Yes4c1,235$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb791…951cbacked Yes2c1,177$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked No68c1,111$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes2c1,103$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.077424.3%18 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes20c1,085$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.322222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7012…4035backed No64c1,079$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No63c1,021$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.915038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes7c1,013$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2315237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f09…20cebacked No73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes5c998.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.935036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes26c925.1$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.03156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes3c877.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.84015%6 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes2c799.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa317…f14ebacked Yes5c799.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d2…8f47backed Yes3c787.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes28c744$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.324040%16 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6879…8adfbacked Yes28c731.27$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.32425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b5f…c039backed Yes3c715.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251656.3%9 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick27cpaid+104%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd40f…c4e0backed Yes4c697.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e53…cc49backed Yes34c695.83$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.22714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x331d…9b11backed Yes4c659.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5d…8cf9backed Yes3c647.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dad…3e74backed Yes4c627$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x728e…8a74backed Yes33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked No65c599.38$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.61633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2685…7336backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No67c499.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1657254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7297…008dbacked Yes34c481.04$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…1bfabacked Yes3c463.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes23c411.07$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6113118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c402.72$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.021,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ce…13b2backed No74c402.46$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+262.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes3c391.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff74…24febacked Yes17c380.94$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b17…e411backed Yes36c376.05$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xceef…ec6dbacked No66c303.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.041643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4318628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce1…5f46backed No65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes37c297$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d4ccbacked Yes37c294.34$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ed…6069backed Yes36c285.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f8…c8a2backed Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No14c267.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.124957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5827…69dcbacked No63c253.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c250.1$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec73…8a38backed No77c220.78$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4810…65fbbacked Yes22c205$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes36c182.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.031921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-67%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36e3…7b24backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc57…64b3backed Yes33c159.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes25c154.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.319043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8499…42e5backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb54e…8f34backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0c…afebbacked Yes38c150.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.19540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf94…6983backed Yes34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes30c144.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.220051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137331.5%23 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafea…6c85backed No78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf321…a368backed No64c126.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes29c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.252433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf195…46a2backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.