World Politics · resolved market
Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $541,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 0c | 70,014$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 64,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 34,489$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…859ebacked Yes | 0c | 29,349$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 26,956$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 20,733$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 17,044$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 10,873$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,405$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…951cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,788$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…3e74backed Yes | 0c | 5,441$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 1c | 4,369$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed Yes | 1c | 3,990$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,254$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,875$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,477$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,351$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?this page
- Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Yes won
- Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.