World Politics · resolved market
Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe969e0250d4ce4fef1922710f4ce55218aa8b76ae46c69741444de9187e8c2d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,380,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,378,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,380,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 84,511$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 33,830$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,810$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…1df4backed Yes | 0c | 13,915$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…376bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,127$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…18f8backed Yes | 0c | 11,876$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…979dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,127$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…982abacked Yes | 1c | 8,048$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…2a2abacked Yes | 0c | 6,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…cce3backed Yes | 0c | 5,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c66…bef0backed Yes | 0c | 5,236$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b04…5b2bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…890cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,470$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 7c | 2,849$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 1,545$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,307$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…9d5cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,089$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 5c | 617.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 577.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 264.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 10c | 170.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?this page
- Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Frank Baylis be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Karina Gould be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Yes won
- Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
- Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.