TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf01d…e7ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada remove retaliatory tariffs on USA in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+237%+$140.64
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.31
Will Democrats win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+278.5%+$253.48
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will Naleraq win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.4
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.99
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump lower automobile tariffs on Canada/Mexico by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$45.57
Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
Will Labour win less than 325 seats in the next UK Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-71.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.01
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Nets vs. Pistonsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$112.47
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+212.5%+$21.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.95
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.7
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+576.5%+$131.13
US tariffs on European cars before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.34
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Epstein files released this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$60.49
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.92
Trump negative approval by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$221.88
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Putin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.03
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+220.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$95.29
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+170.3%+$24.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$8.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Sinquefield Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flames vs. Panthersbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.