Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump deport Ukrainians before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x649f4e0b415b76ecb625c644143079963c4c2ca8556d3e394675473d86c4c386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,837$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 5c | 2,466$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,586$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…38a1backed No | 77c | 1,293$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 23c | 869.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 793.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 513.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 304.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 7c | 255.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c43…113bbacked No | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 67c | 191$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 189.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 31c | 168.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 49c | 156.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed No | 73c | 130.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 23c | 125.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…745cbacked No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 42c | 88.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 26c | 64.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 64c | 56.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…37ecbacked No | 67c | 43.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…6bcebacked No | 75c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed No | 58c | 40.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed No | 75c | 25.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…9945backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.